影響台灣外匯交易員決策之因素與匯率預測之探討

• Main Author: 何方治
• Other Authors: 何憲章
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1993
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92915320402828531575

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 商學研究所 === 81 === 　　Being a trpical island-economy nation, Taiwan relies heavily upon the external trade. As international trade activity is a main motivity for the economic development, exchange rate plays an important role in the field of international trade, consequently, the effective control of exchange rate movement shall become an important subject in the exchange risk management. 　　The present thesis contains determinant theory of general exchange rate as well as interviews of some foreign exchange dealers for the purpose of creating a questionnaire for variable factors which may affect exchange rate, then determines the common factors by means of factor analysis and samples one variable from common factors for effecting a discriminant analysis. Its purpose is to control variable factors which may affect exchange rate movement throuth the points of view of such foreign exchange dealers. 　　The effect of my research reveals: 　　1.Economic prosperity is one of the most factors which may greatly affect exchange rate for NT Dollars against US Dollars in the local foreign exchange market as well as that for DM against US Dollars in the international foreign exchange markets. 　　2.In case we forecast the instant exchange rate for NT Dollars against US Dollars by way of discriminant analysis, the forecast exactitude of exchange rate will be better by taking the instant forecasting index. In case we forcast the instant exchange rate for DM against US Dollars by way of Discriminant analysis, the forcasting exactitude of exchange rate will be better by taking the ultimo forecasting index. 　　3.The importance for "Bank Policy", "International US Dollar" and "Foreign Exchange Reserve" which are less mentioned in the common theories is provent herein.