| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 81 === The purpose of this study is to use suitable sets of input
parameters generated by Latin Hypercubic Sampling (LHS) method,
and to apply the current analytic technique to evaluate
sensitivity and uncertainty of model outputs from ACRONYM. In
sensitivity analysis, various model outputs at different times
and locations are used to develop multiple regression
relationships with model inputs. Based on the developed
regression equations the sensitivity of input parameters and
input groups on model outputs can be quantified. Information
from the sensitivity analysis can be utilized to enhance the
efficiency for model parameters calibration. In uncertainty
analysis, the procedures are almost the same as that in
sensitivity analysis, except that the synthesized data for
model input parameters are somewhat different. When the
regression equations between model input parameters and model
outputs are obtained, the theories associated with type I SS
and type II SS are adopted to perform the uncertainty analysis
of input groups and input parameters, respectively. From the
uncertainty analysis, model output uncertainty can be
quantified and important model input parameters can be
identified. Furthermore, analysis such as this provides
important information on the degree of reliability of simulated
results from the model which is useful to model users.
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