Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach

Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Eynon, James R.
Language:English
Published: Youngstown State University / OhioLINK 2011
Subjects:
Aging
Applied Mathematics
Demographics
Statistics
Logistic force of mortality models
Monte Carlo simulation
Life table probability of death
Social Security Death Index
Online Access:http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1329508121
id ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-ysu1329508121
record_format oai_dc
spelling ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-ysu13295081212021-08-03T06:18:11Z Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach Eynon, James R. Aging Applied Mathematics Demographics Statistics Logistic force of mortality models Monte Carlo simulation Life table probability of death Social Security Death Index A program was written in the statistical software package R for conducting Monte Carlo studies based on simulated life tables, and then used in a study to compare two different models for predicting life table probabilities of death. A parametric probability model was used by the program to generate the cohort distribution of deaths, based on supplied life table data. For the present study a cohort life table was constructed using mortality data from the Social Security Death Index, Master File. The models evaluated in the present Monte Carlo study are alternative three-parameter versions of the logistic force of mortality model. The models were fit to simulated life table data for ages 80 to 99, and then used to make probability of death predictions for ages 80 to 105. The Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain the average values and standard deviations of the probability of death predictions generated by the two models, which were then compared to one another and to the actual probabilities of death based on the probability model that generated the simulated life table data. Results of the simulations showed that the mean probabilities of death predicted by the two models were very similar over the range of ages considered, but usually deviated somewhat from the actual probabilities of death. In the age range of 80-99, the average percentage deviation was less than 2% for each model, while in the age range of 100-105, the average percentage deviation for the models was around 5-6%. In the age range of 100-105, both models always underestimated the true probability of death. 2011 English text Youngstown State University / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1329508121 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1329508121 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.
collection NDLTD
language English
sources NDLTD
topic Aging
Applied Mathematics
Demographics
Statistics
Logistic force of mortality models
Monte Carlo simulation
Life table probability of death
Social Security Death Index
spellingShingle Aging
Applied Mathematics
Demographics
Statistics
Logistic force of mortality models
Monte Carlo simulation
Life table probability of death
Social Security Death Index
Eynon, James R.
Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
author Eynon, James R.
author_facet Eynon, James R.
author_sort Eynon, James R.
title Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
title_short Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
title_full Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
title_fullStr Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
title_full_unstemmed Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach
title_sort comparison of logistic force of mortality models for predicting life table probabilities of death: a simulation-based approach
publisher Youngstown State University / OhioLINK
publishDate 2011
url http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1329508121
work_keys_str_mv AT eynonjamesr comparisonoflogisticforceofmortalitymodelsforpredictinglifetableprobabilitiesofdeathasimulationbasedapproach
_version_ 1719434486388621312

Similar Items