Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis
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| Language: | English |
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The Ohio State University / OhioLINK
2015
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| Online Access: | http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1439601683 |
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ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-osu1439601683 |
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oai_dc |
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NDLTD |
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English |
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Environmental Economics Water Quality Phosphorus Emission Voluntary Agricultural Conservation Programs Time Series Econometrics Global Timber Model Heterogeneous Timber Biomass Energy Forest Carbon Uncertainty Monte Carlo Analysis Dynamic Nonlinear Optimization |
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Environmental Economics Water Quality Phosphorus Emission Voluntary Agricultural Conservation Programs Time Series Econometrics Global Timber Model Heterogeneous Timber Biomass Energy Forest Carbon Uncertainty Monte Carlo Analysis Dynamic Nonlinear Optimization Kim, Sei Jin Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| author |
Kim, Sei Jin |
| author_facet |
Kim, Sei Jin |
| author_sort |
Kim, Sei Jin |
| title |
Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_short |
Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_full |
Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_sort |
three essays on the implications of environmental policy on nutrient outputs in agricultural watersheds and the heterogeneous global timber model with uncertainty analysis |
| publisher |
The Ohio State University / OhioLINK |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1439601683 |
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AT kimseijin threeessaysontheimplicationsofenvironmentalpolicyonnutrientoutputsinagriculturalwatershedsandtheheterogeneousglobaltimbermodelwithuncertaintyanalysis |
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1719438780258058240 |
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ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-osu14396016832021-08-03T06:33:01Z Three Essays on the Implications of Environmental Policy on Nutrient Outputs in Agricultural Watersheds and the Heterogeneous Global Timber Model with Uncertainty Analysis Kim, Sei Jin Environmental Economics Water Quality Phosphorus Emission Voluntary Agricultural Conservation Programs Time Series Econometrics Global Timber Model Heterogeneous Timber Biomass Energy Forest Carbon Uncertainty Monte Carlo Analysis Dynamic Nonlinear Optimization This dissertation consists of three chapters: the implications of environmental policy on nutrient outputs in agricultural watersheds; an assessment of the effects of global wood biomass demand projections on forests using the Global Timber Model (GTM), including heterogeneous products in the forestry sector; and the analysis of whether forest-based bioenergy is carbon neutral using the Monte Carlo analysis with the Global Timber Model (GTM). The first chapter examines whether the federally sponsored voluntary environmental programs to reduce phosphorus pollution from agriculture have had any impact on water quality outcomes. Using daily observations on nutrient emissions taken over 37 years in two Great Lakes tributaries, we estimate an econometric model of phosphorus emissions. Phosphorus emissions are the most important contributor to harmful algal blooms, which have recently caused significant health concerns. Our results indicate that these voluntary programs have had very little effect on phosphorus outputs. In contrast, we show that an input tax could be effective in reducing phosphorus pollution, and consequently, the likelihood of future harmful algal blooms. The second chapter uses the Global Timber Model (GTM) to analyze global biomass demand projection scenarios. The current literature in the Global Timber Model lacks implications of diverse utilizations in forests, assuming a homogeneous product of woody use. In this chapter, the model maximizes the present value of net social welfare derived from harvesting and managing the world's forests and assumes that the timber market consists of two heterogeneous goods: saw-timber and pulpwood. A functioning market for cellulosic biomass does not yet exist; however, we assume that either type of wood is an available feedstock for production of cellulosic bioenergy on the global scale, and that it can be substituted for the purposes of making ethanol or other energy, such as electricity and heat. A baseline scenario for the model is solved first by assuming that there is no wood demand for biomass energy. In the baseline scenario, timber is allocated either to saw timber or pulpwood. Two hypothetical global biomass demand projections are then examined to investigate economic behaviors and the carbon consequences in forest-related sectors. The first scenario assumes that the biomass demand projection from the global scale, allowing the supply source of timbers from all over the world. The second scenario includes the European biomass demand only and excludes the biomass demand from the rest of the countries, given that Europe is currently the world's largest market for woody biomass energy and expects to have the greatest influence on the wood biomass market and, consequently, in the traditional timber products market globally. The result indicates that future increases in the wood demand for biomass energy will encourage forest suppliers to take away traditional timbers instead, in order to satisfy biomass energy use. This shift of supply will cause an increase in timber prices, and accordingly, stimulate forest investment. With the higher biomass demand scenario, the model projects more carbon emissions in the forestry sector as a global consequence. In the third chapter, the Monte Carlo simulation method is adapted to resolve uncertainty in the input parameters of the Global Timber Model, given the complexities of solving dynamic forestry models. In this analysis, input parameters of yield growth and land supply elasticity are randomly varied across different forest management types included in the model. We develop techniques to implement the model on a supercomputer, and run each optimization process based on each set of parameter random draws simultaneously. In this way, time inefficiency is resolved regardless of the sampling intensity, which is one of the major concerns in implementing the Monte Carlo simulation to the dynamic optimization of forest management model. In contrast to the result of a deterministic model suggesting that forests emit slightly more carbon under the "High" bioenergy mandate policy than the "Low" bioenergy mandate policy, the uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation method indicates, with 95% confidence, the possibility that the bioenergy mandate would not have an effect on forest carbon sequestration. 2015 English text The Ohio State University / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1439601683 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1439601683 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws. |