Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Osborn, Douglas M.
Language:English
Published: The Ohio State University / OhioLINK 2013
Subjects:
Nuclear Engineering
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Dynamic PRA
MELCOR
MACCS
MACCS2
Dynamic Event Tree
DET
Uncertainty
Nuclear
SOARCA
Severe Reactor Accident
Station Blackout
SBO
Sandia National Laboratories
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
NRC
SNL
Online Access:http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1372524956
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spelling ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-osu13725249562021-08-03T05:24:22Z Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis Osborn, Douglas M. Nuclear Engineering Probabilistic Risk Assessment Dynamic PRA MELCOR MACCS MACCS2 Dynamic Event Tree DET Uncertainty Nuclear SOARCA Severe Reactor Accident Station Blackout SBO Sandia National Laboratories Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRC SNL The current approach to Level 2 and Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the conventional event-tree/fault-tree methodology requires pre-specification of event order occurrence which may vary significantly in the presence of uncertainties. Manual preparation of input data to evaluate the possible scenarios arising from these uncertainties may also lead to errors from faulty/incomplete input preparation and their execution using serial runs may lead to computational challenges. A methodology has been developed for Level 2 analysis using dynamic event trees (DETs) that removes these limitations with systematic and mechanized quantification of the impact of aleatory uncertainties on possible consequences and their likelihoods. The methodology is implemented using the Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees (ADAPT) software.For the purposes of this work, aleatory uncertainties are defined as those arising from the stochastic nature of the processes under consideration, such as the variability of weather, in which the probability of weather patterns is predictable but the conditions at the time of the accident are a matter of chance. Epistemic uncertainties are regarded as those arising from the uncertainty in the model (system code) input parameters (e.g., friction or heat transfer correlation parameters).This work conducts a seamless Level 2/3 PRA using a DET analysis. The research helps to quantify and potentially reduce the magnitude of the source term uncertainty currently experienced in Level 3 PRA. Current techniques have been demonstrated with aleatory uncertainties for environmental releases of radioactive materials. This research incorporates epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a phenomenologically consistent manner through use of DETs. The DETs were determined using the ADAPT framework and linking ADAPT with MELCOR, MELMACCS, and the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporated in these analyses provide a proof-of-concept that a dynamic analysis can provide more realistic insight into a PRA. 2013-08-29 English text The Ohio State University / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1372524956 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1372524956 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.
collection NDLTD
language English
sources NDLTD
topic Nuclear Engineering
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Dynamic PRA
MELCOR
MACCS
MACCS2
Dynamic Event Tree
DET
Uncertainty
Nuclear
SOARCA
Severe Reactor Accident
Station Blackout
SBO
Sandia National Laboratories
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
NRC
SNL
spellingShingle Nuclear Engineering
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Dynamic PRA
MELCOR
MACCS
MACCS2
Dynamic Event Tree
DET
Uncertainty
Nuclear
SOARCA
Severe Reactor Accident
Station Blackout
SBO
Sandia National Laboratories
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
NRC
SNL
Osborn, Douglas M.
Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
author Osborn, Douglas M.
author_facet Osborn, Douglas M.
author_sort Osborn, Douglas M.
title Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
title_short Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
title_full Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
title_fullStr Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
title_sort seamless level 2 / level 3 probabilistic risk assessment using dynamic event tree analysis
publisher The Ohio State University / OhioLINK
publishDate 2013
url http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1372524956
work_keys_str_mv AT osborndouglasm seamlesslevel2level3probabilisticriskassessmentusingdynamiceventtreeanalysis
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