The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature

The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ballinger, Thomas Justin
Language:English
Published: The Ohio State University / OhioLINK 2011
Subjects:
Climate Change
Arctic
sea ice
surface air temperature
teleconnections
AMO
Online Access:http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1311889468
id ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-osu1311889468
record_format oai_dc
collection NDLTD
language English
sources NDLTD
topic Climate Change
Arctic
sea ice
surface air temperature
teleconnections
AMO
spellingShingle Climate Change
Arctic
sea ice
surface air temperature
teleconnections
AMO
Ballinger, Thomas Justin
The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
author Ballinger, Thomas Justin
author_facet Ballinger, Thomas Justin
author_sort Ballinger, Thomas Justin
title The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
title_short The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
title_full The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
title_fullStr The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
title_full_unstemmed The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature
title_sort influence of atmosphere-ocean teleconnections on western arctic sea ice and surface air temperature
publisher The Ohio State University / OhioLINK
publishDate 2011
url http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1311889468
work_keys_str_mv AT ballingerthomasjustin theinfluenceofatmosphereoceanteleconnectionsonwesternarcticseaiceandsurfaceairtemperature
AT ballingerthomasjustin influenceofatmosphereoceanteleconnectionsonwesternarcticseaiceandsurfaceairtemperature
_version_ 1719430133482258432
spelling ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-osu13118894682021-08-03T06:03:32Z The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Teleconnections on Western Arctic Sea Ice and Surface Air Temperature Ballinger, Thomas Justin Climate Change Arctic sea ice surface air temperature teleconnections AMO <p>Over the last several decades western Arctic sea ice has declined in thickness and extent while surface air temperatures (SATs) have increased. Numerous studies have analyzed both anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the modes of natural variability, known as teleconnections, amongst other contributors. Separating anthropogenically-forced from natural signals is computationally difficult and far from perfected. While it is largely accepted that GHGs play a role in Arctic warming, previous papers have largely neglected to find a consistent multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) or atmospheric teleconnection capable of explaining a significant amount of sea ice and land SAT variability in the region. </p><p>As a result, statistical analysis of ten global teleconnections against sea ice and SATs in the western Arctic is carried out from 1951-2007 over multi-seasonal, summer and annual scales. Rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) is employed to reduce, simplify and negate the potential for multicollinearity amongst the teleconnections while maximizing each component’s explained variance. Those components are then regressed against the eleven separate sea ice retreat longitudes and coastal SAT locales at Barrow, Alaska and Mys Uelen, Russia using the stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) technique in order to yield corresponding cumulative predictors of the variability. </p><p>Contrary to previous studies, a multidecadal teleconnection presence, in the form of the seasonally-composed (winter, spring and summer) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), is found to be the initial predictor for ten of the longitudes. The AMO generally explains an increasing amount of the variance across the study (r<sup>2</sup> = 0.41) of the poleward ice retreats to a longitude of approximately 146.05°W (L146) before it decays. In fact, the AMO combined with other multi-seasonal teleconnection predictors, most notably AO/NAO in spring, accounts for approximately half of the explained variance for L151, L146 and L141 sea ice longitudes. A similar pattern with weaker r<sup>2</sup> values persists for the summer-only teleconnection and sea ice analysis. Barrow annual SATs are more robust than Uelen in summer and annually, but not during the seasonal analysis. The most robust temperature returns occur in the annual analysis where the AMO explains only a slight portion of the explained variance (r<sup>2</sup> = 0.19) in conjunction with the PDO (r<sup>2</sup> = 0.11), though these connections pale in comparison to the aforementioned sea ice studies.</p><p>Time series of observed and residual values are generally better correlated than observed and predicted values. This indicates rather consistent under prediction by the SMLR statistical model. Nevertheless, the respective t-value and F-ratio regression tests show the slopes significantly differ from zero. The residuals are mostly insignificant and therefore random and normally distributed. Final comparisons of the principal components and raw-averaged teleconnections indices are examined with the sea ice retreats where the largest variances were explained (L151-L141) and Barrow annual temperatures. Notable correlations (≈ r ≥ 0.50) further indicate a good fit between the AMO and ice retreats over the entire study period. These statistical outputs can be physically substantiated thereby supporting the presence of this multidecadal teleconnection in the western Arctic.</p> 2011-09-26 English text The Ohio State University / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1311889468 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1311889468 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.

Similar Items