A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Wise, Michael Anthony
Language:	English
Published:	Ohio University / OhioLINK 1989
Subjects:	Variance Reduction Technique Production Cost Simulation
Online Access:	http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023

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spelling	ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-ohiou11821810232021-08-03T05:44:55Z A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation Wise, Michael Anthony Variance Reduction Technique Production Cost Simulation <p>The problem of accurately modeling the random behavior of electric power generation is formidable because the amount of information required creates a terrific computational burden. The Booth-Baleriaux convolution technique, also called the load duration curve (LDC) method, was introduced in the late 1960s to mitigate some of this burden. Before that time, Monte Carlo or derating techniques were in use. Despite numerous modeling difficulties, the Booth-Baleriaux method is currently, for long range planning applications, the most widely accepted electric power production simulation approach in the United States.</p> <p>There are three parts to this paper. The first part briefly describes the LDC method and highlights its pitfalls. It emphasizes the need to use chronological Monte Carlo methods (which are also described briefly). Second, a variance reduction technique to foster rapid convergence of cost statistics in Monte Carlo studies is developed. Finally, a comparison study using the General Electric Company's MAPS chronological (Monte Carlo) software is analyzed. The two techniques are contrasted to show the virtues of Monte Carlo simulation and variance reduction.</p> <p>The purpose of this variance reduction technique is twofold. First, it assures that each trial is a representative (i.e., most likely) outage pattern of the system being studied. Second, since less samples remain, it results in faster convergence (fewer simulations) of results. The benefits of using variance reduction with Monte Carlo include accurate modeling and a significant reduction in computational effort.</p> 1989 English text Ohio University / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.
collection	NDLTD
language	English
sources	NDLTD
topic	Variance Reduction Technique Production Cost Simulation
spellingShingle	Variance Reduction Technique Production Cost Simulation Wise, Michael Anthony A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
author	Wise, Michael Anthony
author_facet	Wise, Michael Anthony
author_sort	Wise, Michael Anthony
title	A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
title_short	A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
title_full	A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
title_fullStr	A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
title_full_unstemmed	A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
title_sort	variance reduction technique for production cost simulation
publisher	Ohio University / OhioLINK
publishDate	1989
url	http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023
work_keys_str_mv	AT wisemichaelanthony avariancereductiontechniqueforproductioncostsimulation AT wisemichaelanthony variancereductiontechniqueforproductioncostsimulation
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A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation

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