Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process

Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: McCallum, Katie Arlene
Language:English
Published: University of Akron / OhioLINK 2012
Subjects:
Mathematics
Markov
corrosion
oil pipeline
leakage probability
Online Access:http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1334932206
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spelling ndltd-OhioLink-oai-etd.ohiolink.edu-akron13349322062021-08-03T05:26:49Z Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process McCallum, Katie Arlene Mathematics Markov corrosion oil pipeline leakage probability This paper develops a basic foundation for a tool that can be used to predict the probability of a leak occurring in an oil pipeline due to pitting corrosion. The methodology is directly applicable to other steel equipment and infrastructure. Using a simple Markov chain process, we formulate equations for probability distributions of a pit being in a defined set of corroded states. Each state represents a specific pit depth. By adjusting transition rates between states we represent the corrosivity and mitigation conditions to which the oil pipeline is subjected. The transition rate models used here are flexible and capable of accommodating a wide range of corrosivity and mitigation scenarios. We discuss hypothetical cases, such as increasing CO<sub>2</sub> content in oil causing gradual corrosion versus an episodic event causing rapid changes in the corrosivity conditions, demonstrating the ability to make adjustments to the model in order to simulate varying operational conditions. 2012-05-16 English text University of Akron / OhioLINK http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1334932206 http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1334932206 unrestricted This thesis or dissertation is protected by copyright: all rights reserved. It may not be copied or redistributed beyond the terms of applicable copyright laws.
collection NDLTD
language English
sources NDLTD
topic Mathematics
Markov
corrosion
oil pipeline
leakage probability
spellingShingle Mathematics
Markov
corrosion
oil pipeline
leakage probability
McCallum, Katie Arlene
Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
author McCallum, Katie Arlene
author_facet McCallum, Katie Arlene
author_sort McCallum, Katie Arlene
title Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
title_short Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
title_full Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
title_fullStr Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Reliability Using a Markov Process
title_sort probabilistic analysis of pipeline reliability using a markov process
publisher University of Akron / OhioLINK
publishDate 2012
url http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1334932206
work_keys_str_mv AT mccallumkatiearlene probabilisticanalysisofpipelinereliabilityusingamarkovprocess
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