| Summary: | From 1979 through 1984 the economic bases of rural
Oregon counties have undergone structural change. Nonwage
income, especially transfer payments, has played an
important role in these changes. Demographic changes in
rural counties have contributed to the growth in unearned
income.
The economic structure of rural Oregon counties was
estimated by applying indirect export analysis techniques
to secondary data. The results of the structural analysis
provided the data for the econometric analysis.
A conceptual model of regional growth was developed
that incorporated community characteristics such as the
size of the market (population) and market distance (location and commuting activity) from central place
theory. This conceptual model was made operational through
several econometric models which regressed basic income
and community characteristics on residentiary incomes.
Data limitations prevented extensive testing of the
econometric models. Some bias, which affected the values
of the residentiary sectors, was perceived in the
estimation of exports.
Two methodological improvements were attained.
Firstly, the economic base of each county was estimated
with sectoral groupings and data disaggregation that were
better suited to the analytical techniques than is
commonly applied. Secondly, a regional growth model was
develped that combined basic income arguments with
regional location and population arguments.
The growth of expenditures by transfer payments
recipients, both as a type of basic income expenditure and
as a representative of retiree consumption, helped to
account for the growth of residentiary income in rural
counties during the early 1980's. Due to the steady growth
of transfer payments, the growth of the retiree population
and the decline in export earnings, policy makers should
specifically consider the changing number of retirees when
formulating regional development strategies. === Graduation date: 1988
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