| Summary: | Since the 1990s, there has been a considerable increase in the use of
computable general equilibrium (CGE) models in South Africa to study a
variety of policy issues, specifically, development plans, agricultural
programmes, tax policy and international trade. This study asks: What is
the state of computable general equilibrium modelling in South Africa
after more t h a n a decade of growth and development and what is the
way forward?
Answering the above questions is both relevant and significant for two
reasons. The first is that such an appraisal can help pave the way
forward for general equilibrium modelling in general. The advantages of
CGE models for policy analyses, compared to traditional macroeconomic
models, are now widely acknowledged. General equilibrium models allow
for consistent comparative analysis of policy scenarios and they
incorporate microeconomic mechanisms and institutional features within
a consistent macroeconomic framework, and avoid the representation of
behaviour in reduced form. This allows analysis of structural change
under a variety of assumptions.
The second reason pertains specifically to policy challenges facing South
Africa and the modelling thereof. The CGE models of the 1990s were
used to examine the issues of the day such as macro stability and the
opening up of the economy. An appraisal of the models will indicate
their usefulness in policy formulation then and now. Currently the
challenges have shifted to the labour market, environmental questions
and sub-national issues and a timely overview may help to indicate the
way forward for CGE modellers. === Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2005.
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