| Summary: | In this thesis Generalized Additive Neural Networks (GANNs) are studied in the context of predictive Data Mining. A GANN is a novel neural network implementation of a Generalized Additive Model. Originally GANNs were constructed interactively by considering partial residual plots.
This methodology involves subjective human judgment, is time consuming, and can result in suboptimal
results. The newly developed automated construction algorithm solves these difficulties by
performing model selection based on an objective model selection criterion. Partial residual plots
are only utilized after the best model is found to gain insight into the relationships between inputs
and the target. Models are organized in a search tree with a greedy search procedure that identifies
good models in a relatively short time. The automated construction algorithm, implemented
in the powerful SAS® language, is nontrivial, effective, and comparable to other model selection
methodologies found in the literature. This implementation, which is called AutoGANN, has a
simple, intuitive, and user-friendly interface. The AutoGANN system is further extended with an
approximation to Bayesian Model Averaging. This technique accounts for uncertainty about the
variables that must be included in the model and uncertainty about the model structure. Model
averaging utilizes in-sample model selection criteria and creates a combined model with better predictive
ability than using any single model. In the field of Credit Scoring, the standard theory of
scorecard building is not tampered with, but a pre-processing step is introduced to arrive at a more
accurate scorecard that discriminates better between good and bad applicants. The pre-processing
step exploits GANN models to achieve significant reductions in marginal and cumulative bad rates.
The time it takes to develop a scorecard may be reduced by utilizing the automated construction
algorithm. === Thesis (Ph.D. (Computer Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.
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