Discrimination of the formation and intensity of progressive derechos based on the environmental conditions of simulated events

• Main Author: Churchill, William Lawrence
• Other Authors: Jamie Dyer
• Format: Others
• Language: en
• Published: MSSTATE 2016
• Subjects: Geosciences
• Online Access: http://sun.library.msstate.edu/ETD-db/theses/available/etd-06092016-150310/

<p>The purpose of this research is to simulate warm-season mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to determine whether modeled atmospheric variables are capable of discriminating between derecho formation and intensity. Fifty total events are selected with half being derecho-producing MCSs and half being non-derecho producing MCSs. WRF is used to model each event with a high-resolution domain centered over the Midwest using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset as initial and boundary conditions. Atmospheric conditions downstream of the MCS damage path are compared to thresholds established by previous research to determine if the model accurately simulates the expected environment. The goal of the research is to gain insight into how well a high-resolution model can simulate the environment that is expected. It is anticipated that the model will be able to distinguish between environments associated with a derecho-producing MCS and a non-derecho MCS.</p>