Sensitivity of physical parameterization schemes to stochastic initial conditions in WRF tornado outbreak simulations
<p>A better understanding of the performance in precision of physical parameterizations in NWP models is necessary for improving forecasts of tornadic outbreaks. For this study, WRF simulations of tornadic outbreaks were run using configurations of three microphysics, three convective physics,...
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| Format: | Others |
| Language: | en |
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MSSTATE
2016
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| Online Access: | http://sun.library.msstate.edu/ETD-db/theses/available/etd-04212016-164621/ |
| Summary: | <p>A better understanding of the performance in precision of physical parameterizations in NWP models is necessary for improving forecasts of tornadic outbreaks. For this study, WRF simulations of tornadic outbreaks were run using configurations of three microphysics, three convective physics, and two PBL physics schemes. Each configuration was subjected to ten iterations of SKEBS. The means of the ten perturbation members of each parameterization configuration were bootstrapped for SB CAPE, SB CIN, and 0-3km SRH to find 95% confidence interval widths at each grid point. Maps of these spreads provided a spatial analysis of the uncertainty. Analyses on correlations and clusters were performed to determine how the configurations related spatially and in magnitude. These uncertainties were further bootstrapped to compare the mean of each configuration in boxplots. The effect on the uncertainty produced by each configuration varied according to the diagnostic variable being analyzed.</p> |
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