A metapopulation model for mass gatherings Application: global travel, Hajj and the spread of measles

• Main Author: Menjivar, Liliana
• Other Authors: Arino, Julien (Mathematics)
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: mass gatherings; metapopulations; Hajj; measles; global travel; Saudi Arabia; deterministic systems; stochastic processes; SLIR; SIR; public health; Mecca; mathematical epidemiology; ODE; CTMC; spatial; multiple populations; single population
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1993/22178

Mass gatherings stress local and global health care systems as they bring together individuals from all over the world that have very different health conditions. We firstly provide an overview of the concepts and results of mathematical epidemiology and public health. Secondly, we present an introduction to the mathematical modelling of measles using deterministic and stochastic approaches for both single and multiple populations. Lastly, we develop a model for mass gatherings and present an application to measles during the Hajj by studying an SIR deterministic metapopulation model with residency and its stochastic analogue. The models incorporate real world country data and time dependent movement and transmission rates, accounting for realistic volume of international travel and seasonality of measles activity. Numerical results for the deterministic system are presented. We conclude with a discussion on further work.