| Summary: | Recent political calls for an end to social promotion have led to an era in which many states are using high stakes tests to make retention decisions. Several decades of research have shown that retention is not an effective practice academically or socially. Louisiana is one state that has adopted a high stakes testing policy. This study examines a state-wide database to examine the predictors of retention in high stakes and low stakes testing years. Multiple regression analyses, discriminant analyses, and logistic regression analyses were run on data from students in grade 4 through grade 8 in Louisiana. The results showed that current year achievement most strongly predicted retention, followed by prior year achievement and finally demographic factors. This finding was consistent over all grade levels. It was also found that even in high stakes testing years, test results are not the sole determinant of retention status. Several exceptions to the high stakes testing policy exist in Louisiana. Limitations of this study and directions for future research are also discussed.
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