U.S. housing projection : perceptives from population growth and demographic factors

• Main Author: Tsai, Arthur C.J.
• Language: English
• Published: University of British Columbia 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/43424

Over the past century, population growth and favourable demographic factors have strongly influenced the U.S. housing market. Demographic factors such as age cohorts, race and ethnicity have formed longstanding housing trends and preferences. These demographic factors are expected to continue as the U.S. population increases over the next few years. In the U.S. West, the population is expected to increase the most compared to the rest of the country. As a result, this thesis examined six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the U.S. West and forecast housing demand in relation to the number of units of housing starts and the volume of construction lumber required to build these housing units. The population and demographic data from 2006 to 2015 for these six MSAs were analysed and results indicated cities with a large population base are expected to have higher housing starts demand and lumber consumption than cities with a smaller population base. Furthermore, different population age cohorts defined as Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y will also affect housing preferences in terms of the size and type of the houses. Another key demographic trend is the mix in race and ethnicity, specifically with the high percentage of Hispanic population in the U.S. West. The Hispanics are the largest and fastest growing ethnic population in the U.S. West and are expected to be a major population segment influencing the future of the housing market.