| Summary: | Thucydides the Athenian wrote his History of the Peloponnesian War, the
famed conflict between Athens and Sparta of 431-404 BCE, in the belief that this
period was the most worth writing about. He hoped that his composition would
become a "possession for all time". He prided himself on his accuracy and
thoroughness of research and reporting. His history is didactic and
paradigmatic, and in it he makes use of a number of themes, from which he
hoped that those who would read his work could understand clearly how events
happened and be able to realize how events will be repeated in much the same
ways.
One such theme is the influence of chance and the unpredictable on the
war. Chance was portrayed by Thucydides as a force which has the ability to
alter the orderly and logical course of events. One aspect of chance and the
unpredictable is the element of weather. This thesis examines the element of
weather as an example of the unpredictable and as a manifestation of chance.
The following questions arise: How does Thucydides perceive weather as an
element of chance and the unpredictable? Does he consider weather to be a
force in the war, having the ability to affect the course of events by hindering or
preventing campaigns, or aiding or leading to campaigns? Is there a pattern to
the human reaction to such events?
The original Greek text of Thucydides was integral in attempting to
answer these questions. The CD-ROM Thesaurus Graecae Linguae was a
great help in conducting word searches through Thucydides' material to isolate
passages relating to chance, the unpredictable and weather. It became evident
that two sections were required; one on the speeches recounted in the work, and
one on the actual events. There were five major episodes which demonstrated
the effect of weather and the unpredictable on the war; the affair at Pylos, the exploits of Brasidas, Phormio's battles at Naupactus, Plataea, and the events of
Book Eight. With focus on the relevant material in Thucydides' text, other
ancient authors and modern scholarship, the material took the form of two major
sections, with the second divided into the five episodes.
Thucydides' speeches, examined in Chapter I, establish his view of
chance and the unpredictable. Chapter II examines the applications of this view
through the above events, in which weather was a factor. Throughout,
Thucydides' commentary on the reaction to these events is noted.
The following conclusions were formed: weather is an element of the
unpredictable and chance when it is not spread over a prolonged period of time.
Weather was seen to hinder, prevent, aid and effect campaigns. It is clear that
Thucydides believed that the human reaction to such events tended to follow a
patter, which was generally predictable. Weather, chance and the unpredictable
fit into Thucydides' method of presenting material in such a manner so as to
enable his readers to make reasonable calculations on how events took place,
and how they may happen again.
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