Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems

Hydro system operators are often confronted with a myriad of conflicting and challenging decision situations. In particular, managing hydroelectric facilities during high inflow or unusual events can be complex, time consuming and challenging. Most high inflow events that challenge operational plan...

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Main Author: Zaman, Md. Sazid
Language:English
Published: University of British Columbia 2010
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2429/28036
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spelling ndltd-LACETR-oai-collectionscanada.gc.ca-BVAU.-280362013-06-05T04:18:59ZDecision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systemsZaman, Md. SazidHydro system operators are often confronted with a myriad of conflicting and challenging decision situations. In particular, managing hydroelectric facilities during high inflow or unusual events can be complex, time consuming and challenging. Most high inflow events that challenge operational planners are driven by hydrology, with either too much or too little water being available. Other factors such as unusual electricity market conditions, dam safety or equipment concerns also drive decision making. In a typical case operators try to balance multiple, and at times, competing objectives during high inflow events. In the case of high inflow subject flood events, Operation Planning Engineers are usually under time pressure to make decisions when the potential outcomes of different management options are highly uncertain. In such situations, planners must quickly make critical and important decisions taking into account the current state of the system and latest available information and forecasts. Their decisions can have environmental, social and financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to develop an effective tool for the Operation Planning Engineers in Generation Resource Management of BC Hydro (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority), which can be quickly and efficiently used during high inflow events at some of BC Hydro facilities. We describe the process that we have developed to build a tool to implement a Structured Decision Making Framework for a typical BC Hydro facility. The tool addresses the inflow uncertainties associated with high inflow floods and includes multiple objectives that are difficult to measure by means of a common unit, which necessitated the development of utility functions and required a trade-off analysis to be carried out. In this paper we also describe a methodology to do the tradeoff analysis among the objectives. We present the results of the analysis for a flood event in the Cheakamus River, October, 2003. At the end of the project decisions made in real-time will be less dependent on the planner’s own risk tolerance and more aligned with corporate risk tolerances that are acceptable to senior management.University of British Columbia2010-08-31T18:26:00Z2010-08-31T18:26:00Z20102010-08-31T18:26:00Z2010-11Electronic Thesis or Dissertationhttp://hdl.handle.net/2429/28036eng
collection NDLTD
language English
sources NDLTD
description Hydro system operators are often confronted with a myriad of conflicting and challenging decision situations. In particular, managing hydroelectric facilities during high inflow or unusual events can be complex, time consuming and challenging. Most high inflow events that challenge operational planners are driven by hydrology, with either too much or too little water being available. Other factors such as unusual electricity market conditions, dam safety or equipment concerns also drive decision making. In a typical case operators try to balance multiple, and at times, competing objectives during high inflow events. In the case of high inflow subject flood events, Operation Planning Engineers are usually under time pressure to make decisions when the potential outcomes of different management options are highly uncertain. In such situations, planners must quickly make critical and important decisions taking into account the current state of the system and latest available information and forecasts. Their decisions can have environmental, social and financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to develop an effective tool for the Operation Planning Engineers in Generation Resource Management of BC Hydro (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority), which can be quickly and efficiently used during high inflow events at some of BC Hydro facilities. We describe the process that we have developed to build a tool to implement a Structured Decision Making Framework for a typical BC Hydro facility. The tool addresses the inflow uncertainties associated with high inflow floods and includes multiple objectives that are difficult to measure by means of a common unit, which necessitated the development of utility functions and required a trade-off analysis to be carried out. In this paper we also describe a methodology to do the tradeoff analysis among the objectives. We present the results of the analysis for a flood event in the Cheakamus River, October, 2003. At the end of the project decisions made in real-time will be less dependent on the planner’s own risk tolerance and more aligned with corporate risk tolerances that are acceptable to senior management.
author Zaman, Md. Sazid
spellingShingle Zaman, Md. Sazid
Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
author_facet Zaman, Md. Sazid
author_sort Zaman, Md. Sazid
title Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
title_short Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
title_full Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
title_fullStr Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
title_full_unstemmed Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
title_sort decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems
publisher University of British Columbia
publishDate 2010
url http://hdl.handle.net/2429/28036
work_keys_str_mv AT zamanmdsazid decisionanalysisframeworkforhighinfloweventsforsmallhydropowerreservoirsystems
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