Empirical analysis of the effects of inflation on growth economic and variability of relative prices

nÃo hà === This study examines the existence of nonlinearities on the relationships between inflation, economic growth and the relative prices variability (RPV) in Brazil. It also assesses the effects of the Brazilian stabilization program, known as âPlano Realâ, on the relationship between inflatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Leonardo Porto Freire
Other Authors: FabrÃcio Carneiro Linhares
Format: Others
Language:Portuguese
Published: Universidade Federal do Cearà 2009
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=3862
Description
Summary:nÃo hà === This study examines the existence of nonlinearities on the relationships between inflation, economic growth and the relative prices variability (RPV) in Brazil. It also assesses the effects of the Brazilian stabilization program, known as âPlano Realâ, on the relationship between inflation and economic performance. The analysis employs time series models that allows threshold effects (for analysis of relationship between inflation and economic growth; and inflation and RPV) and panel data models that allows threshold effects and structural break (on the analysis for relationship between inflation and economic growth). Considering the relation between inflation and growth, the results shows that relationship between inflation and economic growth would be negative only above a certain level of inflation, which confirms the findings of some empirical studies of economic literature. The results also show change evidences in relation between inflation and economic growth after âPlano Realâ, probably because of changes in economy promoted by this policy. As for the relation between inflation and RPV in Brazil, the findings indicate that inflation would have a positive relationship with the RPV. However, this relationship shows a nonlinear behavioral standard in the sense that this would be more positive and significant above a certain level of inflation. === O presente estudo examina a existÃncia de nÃo-linearidade nas relaÃÃes entre inflaÃÃo, crescimento econÃmico e variabilidade dos preÃos relativos (VPR) no Brasil. Analisam-se tambÃm os efeitos da estabilizaÃÃo da economia brasileira, promovida pelo Plano Real, na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e desempenho econÃmico. As anÃlises utilizam modelos de sÃries temporais, que levam em conta efeitos threshold (para a anÃlise das relaÃÃes entre inflaÃÃo e crescimento e inflaÃÃo e VPR); e modelos de dados em painel, que consideram efeitos threshold e quebra estrutural (na anÃlise da conexÃo entre inflaÃÃo e crescimento econÃmico). Considerando a relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e crescimento econÃmico, os resultados mostram que essa seria negativa apenas acima de certo nÃvel inflacionÃrio, o que confirma os resultados de alguns estudos empÃricos da literatura econÃmica. Os resultados tambÃm mostram evidÃncias de alteraÃÃes com respeito à relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e crescimento econÃmico, causadas, muito provavelmente, por mudanÃas na economia proporcionadas pelo Plano Real. Quanto à relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR no Brasil, os resultados indicam que a inflaÃÃo teria uma relaÃÃo positiva com a VPR. Essa relaÃÃo, no entanto, apresenta padrÃo comportamental nÃo-linear no sentido de que seria positiva e mais significativa acima de certo nÃvel inflacionÃrio.