The Olympic impact on hosting candidate countries

• Main Author: Duarte, Rafael Burjack Farias
• Other Authors: Machado, Cecilia
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Average treatment effect; Olimpíadas; Efeito de tratamento; Olympics; Economia; Olimpíadas - Aspectos econômicos; Modelos econométricos
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10176

Submitted by Rafael Burjack ([e-mail]) on 2012-10-11T20:27:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 file_0_Tese.pdf: 550931 bytes, checksum: 38cf0263f5b9d60f39a3ea5ce971d077 (MD5) === Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa ([e-mail]) on 2012-10-24T18:12:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 file_0_Tese.pdf: 550931 bytes, checksum: 38cf0263f5b9d60f39a3ea5ce971d077 (MD5) === Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-30T10:37:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 file_0_Tese.pdf: 550931 bytes, checksum: 38cf0263f5b9d60f39a3ea5ce971d077 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-01 === In this paper, we analyze the impact of hosting the Summer Olympics on macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments per capita. The data is in panel structure and includes the period of ten years before and ten years after the event containing the Olympic Summer Games between 1960 and 1996. The sample countries comprise only candidates to host the games. This sampling strategy allows us to estimate the average treatment effect consistently, because it is assumed that these countries are comparable to each other, including those that ultimately hosted the games. The impact of hosting the Olympic games is measured by Fixed Effect and First Difference regressions. Moreover, we do a structural break test developed by Andrews (1993) to identify if hosting the Olympic Games creates anticipation effects for demand changes that stimulate current GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments. The results indicate a positive effect of the Summer Olympics in all variables of interest. However, the distribution in time and anticipation of these effects is unclear in the tests, changing significantly depending on the model and the significance level used. === Neste artigo e analisado o impacto de sediar as Olimp adas de Ver~ao em agregados macroecon^omicos como PIB, consumo, gastos do governo e investimentos per capitas. Os dados utilizados est~ao em painel e cont^em o per odo entre dez anos antes e dez anos depois do evento contendo os Jogos Ol mpicos de Ver~ao entre 1960 e 1996. Os pa ses da amostra s~ao apenas os candidatos a sediar os jogos, essa estrat egia amostral permite estimar os efeitos m edios de tratamento de forma consistente, pois assume-se que esses pa ses s~ao compar aveis entre si. Para avaliar o impacto dos jogos e lan cado m~ao de t ecnicas em painel como o Efeito Fixo e a Primeira Diferen ca e, al em disso, faz-se um teste de quebra estrutural desenvolvido por Andrews (1993) entre os pa ses sede. Os resultados indicam um efeito positivo e robusto dos Jogos Ol mpicos de Ver~ao em todas as vari aveis de interesse. No entanto, a distribui c~ao no tempo e antecipa c~ao desses efeitos e amb gua nos testes mudando de forma signi cativa dependendo do modelo e n vel de signi c^ancia utilizados.