| Summary: | Submitted by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2015-01-06T12:56:20Z
No. of bitstreams: 2
danilo_marques_fonseca.pdf: 761321 bytes, checksum: 6eaa94ad2687bf427fb231bb672cd2f9 (MD5)
license_rdf: 23898 bytes, checksum: e363e809996cf46ada20da1accfcd9c7 (MD5) === Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2015-01-06T12:56:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2
danilo_marques_fonseca.pdf: 761321 bytes, checksum: 6eaa94ad2687bf427fb231bb672cd2f9 (MD5)
license_rdf: 23898 bytes, checksum: e363e809996cf46ada20da1accfcd9c7 (MD5) === Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2015-01-06T12:56:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2
danilo_marques_fonseca.pdf: 761321 bytes, checksum: 6eaa94ad2687bf427fb231bb672cd2f9 (MD5)
license_rdf: 23898 bytes, checksum: e363e809996cf46ada20da1accfcd9c7 (MD5) === Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2015-01-06T12:57:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2
danilo_marques_fonseca.pdf: 761321 bytes, checksum: 6eaa94ad2687bf427fb231bb672cd2f9 (MD5)
license_rdf: 23898 bytes, checksum: e363e809996cf46ada20da1accfcd9c7 (MD5) === Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-06T12:57:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2
danilo_marques_fonseca.pdf: 761321 bytes, checksum: 6eaa94ad2687bf427fb231bb672cd2f9 (MD5)
license_rdf: 23898 bytes, checksum: e363e809996cf46ada20da1accfcd9c7 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2013 === Objetivou-se com este trabalho levantar os custos de produ??o de carv?o vegetal de dois projetos florestais localizados na regi?o do Vale do Jequitinhonha, Minas Gerais; realizar an?lise econ?mica; e verificar os riscos da atividade com a aplica??o da an?lise de sensibilidade e de risco para os projetos em estudo. O projeto 1 consistiu em povoamentos clonais de eucalipto (clone GG 100) com horizonte de planejamento de 14 anos e 2 ciclos de corte (aos 7 e 14 anos). O projeto 2 consistiu em povoamentos de Eucaliptus cloeziana com horizonte de planejamento de 11 anos e dois ciclos de corte (aos 6 e 11 anos). Em ambos os projetos o espa?amento utilizado foi de 3 x 2 metros. Realizou-se a avalia??o econ?mica mediante os seguintes crit?rios: VPL, TIR, B/C, VAE e VET. A taxa de desconto utilizada foi de 8,75% a. a.. Na an?lise de sensibilidade considerou-se uma varia??o de 10% para mais e para menos na produ??o total e no pre?o de venda do carv?o vegetal. Para a an?lise de risco utilizou-se a t?cnica de simula??o de Monte Carlo, mediante o uso do programa @RISK. Os resultados indicaram viabilidade econ?mica em ambos os projetos. No projeto 1 os valores foram: VPL = R$ 4.208,59/ha, TIR = 18,48%, B/C = 1,29, VAE = R$ 532,94/ha/ano e VET = R$ 5.787,97/ha. Na an?lise de sensibilidade a lucratividade foi afetada pelas varia??es na produ??o e pelo pre?o de venda do carv?o, por?m o projeto manteve-se vi?vel. A simula??o da an?lise de risco indicou que as vari?veis que afetaram a TIR, na sua ordem de import?ncia, foram: pre?o de venda do carv?o (R$/mdc), produ??o da floresta no primeiro corte (m?/ha), produ??o da floresta no segundo corte (m?/ha), custo de implanta??o (R$/ha) e taxa de desconto (% a.a.). No projeto 2 os indicadores financeiros foram iguais a VPL = R$ 4.594,48/ha, TIR = 21,24, VAE = 667,19 R$ /ha/ano, B/C = 1,35 e VET = R$ 5.971,75/ha. Pela an?lise de sensibilidade observou-se que a viabilidade econ?mica do projeto se manteve positiva mesmo com varia??es na produ??o e no pre?o de venda do carv?o vegetal. A simula??o da an?lise de risco indicou que as vari?veis que afetaram a TIR, na sua ordem de import?ncia foram: pre?o de venda do carv?o (R$/mdc), produ??o da floresta no primeiro corte (m?/ha), produ??o da floresta no segundo corte (m?/ha) e custo de implanta??o (R$/ha). Os dois projetos estudados apresentaram-se economicamente vi?veis. De acordo com a an?lise de sensibilidade os projetos apresentados s?o capazes de suportar varia??es de mercado e de produtividade, mantendo-se vi?veis economicamente mesmo com varia??es negativas. O risco de inviabilidade dos projetos ? m?nimo, podendo ser comprovado pelo desempenho dos indicadores financeiros utilizados. Sendo os projetos mutuamente exclusivos ? indicado que o investidor opte pelo Projeto 2 pelo fato deste apresentar valores ligeiramente superiores em rela??o ao Projeto 1 e, tamb?m, por possuir menor horizonte de planejamento, resultando em um menor tempo de retorno do capital investido. === Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Ci?ncia Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2013. === ABSTRACT
The objective of this study raise the costs of production of charcoal from two forestry projects located in Vale do Jequitinhonha, Minas Gerais, performing economic analysis and to verify the risks of the activity with the application of sensitivity analysis and risk projects under study. The project consisted of 1 clonal eucalyptus (clone GG 100 ) with a planning horizon of 14 years and 2 cutting cycles ( at 7 and 14 years). The project consisted of two Eucalyptus stands cloeziana with a planning horizon of 11 years and two cutting cycles (at 6 and 11 years). In both projects the spacing used was 3 x 2 meters. Was conducted an economic evaluation using the following criteria : VPL, TIR, B/C, VAE and VET . The discount rate used was 8,75% a. a.. In sensitivity analysis, we considered a variation of 10% plus or minus the total production and the selling price of charcoal. For risk analysis, we used the technique of Monte Carlo simulation, by using the @RISK. The results indicated economic viability in both projects. In one project the values were: VPL = R$ 4.208,59/ha, TIR = 18,48%, B/C = 1,29, VAE = R$ 532,94/ha/year and VET = R$ 5.787,97/ha . In sensitivity analysis, the profitability was affected by changes in the production and the selling price of coal , but the project remained viable. Simulation of risk analysis showed that the variables that affected the TIR, in their order of importance were: coal selling price (R$/mdc) , forest production in the first cut (m?/ha) , production forest second cut (m?/ha) , deployment cost (R$/ha) and discount rate (% a.a.). In the second project financial indicators were equal to VPL = R$ 4.594,48/ha, TIR= 21,24, VAE = R$ 667,19/ha/year, B/C = 1,35 and VET = R$ 5.971,75/ha . For the sensitivity analysis showed that the economic viability of the project remained positive even with variations in production and sales price of charcoal. Simulation of risk analysis showed that the variables that affected the TIR, in their order of importance were: coal selling price (R$/mdc), forest production in the first cut (m?/ha), production forest in second cut (m?/ha ) and establishment cost (R$/ha). The two projects studied were economically viable. According to the sensitivity analysis of the projects presented are able to withstand market fluctuations and productivity, while remaining economically viable even with negative results. The risk of unviable projects is minimal and can be proven by the performance of financial indicators used. Being mutually exclusive projects indicated that the investor opts for Project 2 because this present slightly higher values in relation to the Project 1 and also for having less planning horizon, resulting in a shorter return on invested capital.
|
|---|
