To Rely or Not to Rely? A Study of how Analyst Earnings Forecast Error Changes Leading up to Recessions

• Main Author: Bradford, Mackenzie
• Format: Others
• Published: Scholarship @ Claremont 2019
• Subjects: Forecast; Error; Analyst; Earning; Recession
• Online Access: https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2090; https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3070&context=cmc_theses

There are a large number of investors and companies reliant upon analyst earnings forecasts. Missing analyst forecasts can have a massive impact on share price and investors often look to these values to make decisions regarding future investment decisions. However, there has been a great deal of speculation about these forecasts and especially the error associated with them. With the threat of an impending recession, it is important to know the reliability of forecasts during times leading up to recessions. More specifically, this study aims to see how the level of error associated with analyst earnings forecasts change leading up to recessions and whether or not they should be relied upon as heavily during these times.