Testing the Efficiency of the NFL Point Spread Betting Market

• Main Author: Spinosa, Charles L
• Format: Others
• Published: Scholarship @ Claremont 2014
• Subjects: NFL; Point Spread; Betting; Market; Efficiency; Economics
• Online Access: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/986; http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2102&context=cmc_theses

This paper examines the efficiency of pricing in the NFL point spread betting market, as hypothesized by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, through both statistical and economic tests. This market provides a simpler framework to test such economic hypotheses than conventional financial markets. Using a larger sample size than past literature, this paper finds that while the market is efficient in the aggregate sense, there are still some profit opportunities which imply pricing inefficiencies.