An Analysis of Bitcoin Market Efficiency Through Measures of Short-Horizon Return Predictability and Market Liquidity

• Main Author: Brown, William L
• Format: Others
• Published: Scholarship @ Claremont 2014
• Subjects: Bitcoin; market efficiency; return predictability; Finance and Financial Management; Portfolio and Security Analysis
• Online Access: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/864; http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1913&context=cmc_theses

Bitcoins have the potential to fundamentally change the way value is transferred globally. Their rapid adoption over the past four years has led many to consider the possible results of such a technology. To be a viable currency, however, it is imperative that the market for trading Bitcoins is efficient. By examining the changes in availability of predictable outsized returns and market liquidity over time, this paper examines historical Bitcoin market efficiency and establishes correlations between market liquidity, price predictability, and return data. The results provide insight into the turbulent nature of Bitcoin market efficiency over the past years, but cannot definitively measure the magnitude of the change due to the limitations in efficiency analysis. The most meaningful result of this study, however, is the statistically significant short-horizon price predictability that existed over the duration of the study, which has implications for Bitcoin market efficiency as well as for continued research in short-horizon Bitcoin price forecasting models.