以戰略三角理論檢視俄羅斯、中國、印度三邊關係

• Main Author: 洪于勝
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 俄羅斯; 中國; 印度; 戰略三角; Russia; China; India; Strategic Triangle
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0982630021%22.

近年來，俄羅斯、中國、印度三國經濟發展迅速，國力蒸蒸日上。俄中印三國因地緣因素，自冷戰時期彼此之對外戰略便相互影響。到了後冷戰時期，國際體系轉變成由美國所引領之「一超多強」體系，三國更找到共同合作的利基，促成三國之間的合作。在冷戰與後冷戰兩段時期，三國關係的發展，呈現不同的風貌。 從國際關係現實主義來看，國家作為理性的行為者，追求國家相對利益為決定國家行為的基本因素，而此行為為一場零和賽局。以此為脈絡，美國學者羅德明在冷戰時期發展成的戰略三角理論，成為探討三國關係之經典。台灣學者包宗和更觀察到，後冷戰時期的國家，因國際體系的改變，戰略三角理論由傳統的「個體論」走向「總體論」的取向。本文試圖以戰略三角理論為途徑，探討冷戰與後冷戰兩段時期，俄中印三國關係之演變。 首先，本文探討從二戰結束、冷戰開始以來，俄中印三國在兩極體系下的互動模式；其次探討後冷戰時期的關係演變。再整理出後冷戰三國關係的發展，對國際情勢、美國對外戰略的影響。最後由三國之間互動的實例，對戰略三角理論作出反饋。 === In recent years, the economic growth in Russia, China and India soars rapidly and their national strength does, too. Due to the geopolitical factors, these three nations affected each other in strategies during the cold war. After the cold war, the international system changed into a US-lead “uni-multi-polar system.” Russia, China and India found the common niche which promoted their cooperation. In the two periods of cold war and post-cold war, the relationship among these three countries displayed great differences. From the point of view in realism, the nations as rational actors pursue relative national interests as their goals which turn into a zero-sum game. Lowell Dittmer developed this idea into the “Strategic Triangle Theory” to discuss trilateral relationship among nations in cold war. Tzong-Ho Bau argued that the nations in post-cold war pursue common national interests as a methodological holism which is different from the methodological individualism in the cold war. Through strategic triangle approach, this thesis tries to explore the relationship among Russia, China and India. First, the thesis discusses the relationship among Russia, China and India during the cold war and then the period after the cold war. Second, the thesis discusses the influence which Russia, China and India make on international circumstances and US strategies. Finally, by a review from Russia-China-India trilateral relationship, the thesis gives a feedback to the strategic triangle theory.