| Summary: | 當面對總體蘊藏資訊量極為龐大，單筆資訊則較為零碎的資料來源時，社會網路分析同時兼具微觀及巨觀分析特點的方式，提供了一獨特的切入分析角度。目前在社會網路分析領域中，針對網路性質所發展的分析指標等相關理論，大多以1-mode網路為主要的探討模式，對於2-mode網路模式下的著墨則較為稀少。在本研究論文中，以政府人事異動資料庫為主要資料來源，建構出同時具有人物以及職務兩種不同類型節點的2-mode網路，並選擇以適用於2-mode網路模式下的連結預測理論為主要核心，建置出職務接替人選預測系統，其後透過配合不同的實驗模式設計進行接替人選的預測行動，希望能以此來探討單一職位對於其未來接替人選的考量上，受到其歷任人員職務歷程的影響程度。
實驗數據結果顯示，本研究所建置出的接替人選預測系統，對於不同的職務分類層級以及針對不同部門間的職務預測，均會產生不同的預測成效，而這些成果均可適切反映出因應於升遷法制規範或是部份部門於專業知識上的需求條件，因而使得其在對於職位接替人選的考量上，較易受到歷任人選於職務歷程方面的影響。
=== When coping with the information source which can store quite high information load in total while one piece of that tends to be fragmentary, Social Network Analysis provides a unique viewpoint to contain analyzing characteristics from both of microcosmic and macrocosmic perspectives. To date, when it comes to theories related to analysis indicator established from different analyzing characteristics in the field of Social Network Analysis, effort is mainly made to explore 1-mode network. By contrast, little emphasis is put on 2-mode network. In this study, the database of government’s personnel change is adopted as the major information source. This study then establishes a 2-mode network with two different types of node, that is, personnel and position. Choosing Link Prediction Theory as the major core with its applicability of 2-mode network, the present study sets up a prediction system of position taking-over candidate. Then, in accordance with different designs of experimental model, the prediction is conducted in an attempt to investigate whether the consideration of future taking-over candidate for a certain position would be influenced by position courses of all past personnel in this position.
According to the experimental data, the prediction system of position taking-over candidate established in this study shows different prediction efficiency when predicting different position layers and positions from different sectors. These results all appropriately reflect that the consideration of position taking-over candidate is more easily influenced by position courses of past personnel due to the rules of promotion and the conditions of professional knowledge in some sectors.
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