我國大額支付系統成交值影響因素之研究

• Main Author: 龔玲雅
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 大額支付系統成交值; 貨幣所得流通速率; 大額支付系統週轉率; Large value payment system; Income velocity of money; Large value payment system turnover
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0104921010%22.

大額支付系統係銀行間清算之重要金融基礎設施，除可降低整體商業與金融交易成本外，並作為中央銀行傳遞貨幣政策操作效果之管道，我國大額支付系統成交值為國內生產毛額之數倍，且逐年增加，說明大額支付系統之於經濟活動的重要性，但大額支付系統成交值與國內生產毛額之間是否具有同向變動的關係，少有相關實證研究。 大額支付系統具有促進貨幣交易媒介之功能，透過貨幣所得流通速率（Income Velocity of Money）影響貨幣需求，並與中央銀行貨幣政策公開市場操作密切相關，本研究由總體經濟因素、中央銀行貨幣政策因素、支付系統制度性與結構性因素及重大事件等建立迴歸分析模型，探討各解釋變數與大額支付系統成交值變動之關聯性。實證結果發現，名目國內生產毛額、通貨比率及持有貨幣的機會成本、新臺幣兌美元匯率、全體銀行法定準備金、中央銀行定期存單淨釋出金額及大額支付系統週轉率等解釋變數，均與大額支付系統成交值變動具有正向之統計顯著性，顯示大額支付系統與相關總體經濟因素有關。 大額支付系統伴隨一國經濟成長、支持相關經濟活動，且與中央銀行貨幣政策操作有關，具中央銀行傳遞貨幣政策操作效果之功能，此外，本研究發現，大額支付系統週轉率與大額支付系統成交值變動呈正向相關，中央銀行藉由提升大額支付系統效率措施，促使貨幣需求減少，進而降低貨幣供給，應有助於降低貨幣發行成本。 === Large value payment system (LVPS) is an important financial infrastructure for interbank clearing, which can reduce the overall business and financial transaction costs, and could help transmitting the central bank’s monetary policy effect to the market. Taiwan's LVPS transaction value increasing yearly is several times of its GDP. It shows the importance of the LVPS to domestic economic activities. There is little empirical research about the relationship between the LVPS transaction value and GDP. The LVPS could promote the function of the medium of exchange, which affects the demand of money through the Income Velocity of Money and is closely related to the central bank monetary policy. This study’s regression analysis is based on the macro economic factors, the central bank monetary policy factors, payment system institutional and structural factors and major events. The empirical results show that the GDP, the currency ratio and the opportunity cost of holding the currency, USD/NTD exchange rate, the reserve of the whole bank, the net central bank's negotiable certificates of deposit and LVPS turnover, those variables have positive relationship and statistically significant with the LVPS transaction value changes. The LVPS is accompanied by the economic growth of a nation, supporting the relevant economic activities, related to the central bank's monetary policy, and served as the conduit of the monetary policy effect. The study also found that LVPS turnover and its transaction value’s changes are positively related. The central bank would decrease the cost of money issuance by introducing some institutional measures to strengthen the efficiency of the LVPS, then could help reducing the money demand and supply.