台股股利完全填權息關鍵影響因素之研究

• Main Authors: 陳人豪, Chen, Jen Hao
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 股利; 資料探勘; 特徵選取; Dividend; Data mining; Feature selection
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0102971019%22.

本研究以台灣50與中型100成分股為對象，運用資料探勘特徵選取技術，分析影響股票完全填權息成功之關鍵因素，並依此關鍵因素建構一個完全填權息預測模型，最後比較研究結果與過去研究之異同。本研究完全填權息預測模型的建構過程分為五階段：(1)定義完全填權息之股票：運用TEJ資料庫抓到的歷史股價資料與股利資訊，計算除權息前與除權息後股價，標註完全填權息和未完全填權息二個類別。(2)影響填權息相關因素：根據過去文獻所發現，影響短期填權息行情超額報酬的因素，以及影響股價的基本面因素，蒐集與股利相關的指標與基本分析中所用的公開財務報表資料。(3)特徵選取分析：利用循序前進搜尋（SFS）結合分類演算法，整合與計算所有影響因素資料，藉此找出關鍵的影響因素。(4)預測模型建立：根據特徵選取之結果資料，使用Weka軟體進行資料探勘支持向量機和決策樹分類模型訓練。(5)模型準確性比較與分析：本研究所建構之模型可協助存股型投資者，判斷可領取高股息且無股價損失之股票，提供投資人選股參考。 === In this study, we use the Feature Selection Method for Data Mining to analyze the key factors that may affect the rate of the stock price successfully remaining previous price after dividend payment among stocks of 50 largest companies and 100 medium-sized companies in Taiwan. Based on these key factors, we construct a forecasting model for stocks with the 100% flat stock price. Finally, We try to find out the similarities and differences between the current study and past research. In this study, the construction of a forecasting model for stocks with the 100% flat stock price is divided into five stages: (1) Defining stocks with the 100% flat stock price: Marking stocks with the 100% flat stock price and the non-100% flat stock price on historical stock data and dividend information captured by the TEJ database; (2) Relevant Factors Affecting increase in the stock price after dividend payment: According to the factors found in the past literature that may affect excess returns from short-term increase in the stock price after dividend payment and the fundamental factors affecting the stock price, we are able to collect indexes related to dividends and public financial statements for basic analysis. (3) Feature Selection Analysis: By using the Sequential Forward Selection (SFS) method and the classification algorithm, all influencing factors are integrated and calculated to find out the key influencing factors; (4) The Establishment of the Prediction Model: According to the results of feature selection, we use the Weka software to conduct data mining and train the classification model based on support vector machines and decision trees. (5) Comparison and Analysis on Accuracy of the Model: The model constructed in this study can help stock-holding investors determine stocks with high dividends without loss of the stock price and provide reference for investors in stock selection.