影響中國創業投資產業發展之因素探討

• Main Author: 李品瑛
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 創業投資; 中國; 投資額; Venture Capital; China; investment volume
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0102363015%22.

本文藉由觀察中國創業投資基金投入金額之變化,試圖探討影響中國大陸創業投資產業發展之因素,經由國內外期刊、文獻之歸納整理並加以判斷分析,本研究決定採用九個變數,並分類為三大群組,分別為:金融市場群組:IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度;政治因素群組:國家貪腐指數、專利 通過率;經濟因素群組:研究發展總費用、國內生產總值(GDP)。資料截取自 CEIC (中國經濟數據庫)與Bloomberg(彭博資訊系統),資料期間為 2006 年第一季至 2015 年第一季之季資料,先分析各別因素的歷史軌跡變化與原因,再以四個迴歸分析模型分別探討整體九個變數、金融市場群組、政治群組、與經濟群組對應 變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額的影響程度。 本研究結論包括:資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度、研究發展總費用與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度正相關。國家貪腐指數與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度負相關。IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、 併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、專利通過率、國內生產總額與中國創業投資基金總投資金額無顯著相關性。將自變數依性質分類為三大群組後,分別對應變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額進行迴歸分析,並比較其 Adjusted R Square,發現金融市場群組影響應變數程度最大,其次為經濟因素,影響最小的為政治因 素。 === This paper discusses the venture capital activity in China through observing changes in the investment volume in an attempt to explore the influential factors. This study applies nine factors which then were classified into three groups: financial market group, including capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, and degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered; politics group, including corruption perception index, patent pass rate; economics group, including research and development expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP). Data were retrieved from CEIC and Bloomberg with duration from 2006-2015Q1, seasonal data. This study analyzes the historical trajectory of independent factors, following by four regression analysis, including the overall impact of nine independent variables, the impact of the financial market group, politics group, and economics group on the dependent variable: the total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. The findings include: degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered and the research and development expenditure have highly positive correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Corruption Perception Index has highly negative correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, patent pass rate, and gross domestic production have no significant correlation with the investment volume of venture capital funds in China. After classifying the factors into three groups including financial market factors, economics factors, and politics factors, following by the comparison of adjusted R Square, the study concludes that financial market group has the highest correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China, with economics group as the second and politics group being the least correlated.