民營電廠投資風險管理:投資報酬影響因素分析

• Main Author: 秦培坤
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 民營電廠; 投資報酬; 台灣電力市場; IPP
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0098932076%22.

目前台灣地區電力市場係由一家國營綜合電業（台電公司）、九家民營發電業及超過90家自用發電設備業者（含汽電共生系統及再生能源發電設備）所組成，其中九家民營發電業裝置容量構成比已經達到台灣本島發電系統裝置容量之18.8%。民營發電廠當初在84年開放設立及88年起陸續商業運轉以來，民營電廠之投資報酬是如何決定、投資者預期報酬率是否能夠準確計算、簽約營運後業者可否有能力確保預期投資報酬之達成等問題實在值得探討。 同屬電力事業下，民營電廠間營運成效及經營為何表現差異很大，即使同家電廠每年的表現差異也是很大。而台電公司則是因為國際能源價格上漲而售電價格因政府政策影響無法反映其成本導致96至98年嚴重虧損，可見民營電業營運都會面臨著多項因素影響及挑戰。 本研究擬以民營電廠為個案研究對象，參考相關政府政策方向、相關單位研究資料、業者管理經驗及經營成效等進行投資報酬影響因素之研究分析，先從民營電廠獨特產業進行產業分析，再從建廠期及營運期兩個先後時段進行分析各項影響投資報酬因素，最後提出研究建議，期望能做為既有民營電業業者或日後新進業者在投資風險管理、企業管理方針及經營策略制定的參考。 === Currently the electricity market in Taiwan consists of a state-owned integrated power company (Taiwan Power Company; TPC), 9 independent power producers (IPPs) and more than 90 small private firms that generate power using their own equipments (including cogeneration and renewable energy generation). IPPs share 18.8% of the installed capacity in total in Taiwan. This study mainly investigates how IPPs determine the rate of return on their investments, how the expected rate can be accurately calculated, and whether IPPs can be guaranteed the expected returns after signing the contracts, since 1998 where IPP was initially allowed to set up and subsequently 1999 where commercial operations formally started. IPPs appear to have been facing challenges. Though in the same business environment, the financial performance of each individual IPP varies much. Even for the same IPP, its performance quite differs from period to period. This research is aimed to analyze and identify various important determinants of rate of returns on Investments of IPPs, taking into account government policies, managerial points of view, as well as other available studies. An in-depth industry analysis concerning IPPs is offered, where both the construction and operation stages are covered and discussed. More importantly, strategic considerations in investment risk management are given for the existing IPPs and new comers.