外人來台直接投資影響因素探討:以考量產業及ECFA因素為例

• Main Authors: 謝育霖, Hsieh, Yu Ling
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 外人直接投資; 台灣產業FDI決定因素; 中國FDI 對台灣FDI影響; FDI; TOBIT
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0098258015%22.

由於外人直接投資都被認為是促成一國經濟成長及財富累積的重要決定因素之一，而聯合國貿易與發展會議2010年全球投資報告書中也指出，未來開發中國家對於吸引FDI是比已開發國家更具有優勢，而其中中國將是未來一個全球投資者注目的焦點；故本研究目的有三個:(一)探討影響台灣產業吸引外人來台投資的主要因素，(二)檢定中國FDI增長對於台灣產業吸引外人來台投資是否會有排擠效果，(三)探討兩岸具ECFA協議下，對於台灣產業吸引外人投資的正面幫助效果強度。 本研究採用1982年至2009年之年資料，以Tobit Censoring做為分析方法；並將產業分成出口導向相關產業及國內市場導向相關產業兩不同型態做為分析依據。 實證研究結果發現，政府若想要吸引更多外人直接投資，除了簽訂ECFA協議外，還必須避免台灣國內通貨膨脹率過高及台幣兌美元匯率波動過大；此外，高素質人才的培育也是極其重要，而持續提升國內市場深度及未來發展潛力也是不可或缺的環節；除了這些台灣自身投資環境的營造外，尚必須時時刻刻緊盯國際情勢的變化及中國發展下對台灣吸引FDI上可能帶來的衝擊，如此才有可能打造台灣成為亞洲地區的投資新天地。 === The foreign direct investment is an important factor which be considered to promote a country’s economic growth and wealth accumulation. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development World’s 2010 Investment Report also noted that in attracting FDI developing countries have more advantages than developed countries in the future. Especially China, it focus of attention of global investors. Therefore, this paper has three purposes. First, Explore the Determinants of Taiwan's industries to attract FDI. Second, testing whether China's FDI growth has crowding out effect on Taiwan’s industries. Third, Does ECFA agreement has positive effects on Taiwan’s industries to attract FDI. This paper using 1982 to 2009 year data, and Tobit Censoring econometric method to be the analysis framework. In addition, assort Taiwan’s industries to export-oriented and domestic market-oriented two different types industries. Empirical study found that, If the Government wants to attract more Foreign Direct Investment besides signing an ECFA agreement there are something it must to do. First, government must avoid inflation rate too high and exchange rate volatility is too large. Second, government has to bring up high-quality personnel. Third, government has to enhance the potential of the domestic market. Finally, government has to focus their attention on the international situation and china’s FDI growth may affect the Taiwan’s industries FDI. By doing this, Taiwan will have a chance to attract more FDI.