21世紀中印戰略關係之研究

• Main Authors: 傅淑花, Fu, Su-Hua
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 戰略關係; 競合關係; 地緣關係
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0096981009%22.

中、印兩國隔著喜馬拉雅山毗鄰而居的古文明大國，雖有共同的利益訴求與廣泛的合作基礎，但兩國要提升國家關係層次，實現政治經濟互動仍需跨越許多障礙。相互在戰略層次上受到大國戰略取向和政治博弈的嚴重牽制。在美國的戰略棋盤中，印度被視為在南亞地區牽制中國的重要力量，也是美國擴展經濟合作謀取利益的時機。印度方面因根深蒂固的獨立自主意識和大國思想，對國家利益和長期戰略的體認與運作，積亟促進經濟增長，加強軍備建設，特別是加強海、空軍力量，在印度洋上設立新海軍艦隊，立足印度洋，走向世界已成為印度國家戰略的重心。如上述顯示，中、印兩國的國家戰略和國際地位極為相似，這種相似性無疑是兩國基於自身的根本利益，將國家關係提升至戰略層次並推向新階段的前提。同時印度要想成為聯合國常任理事國，實現其地區和世界政治大國的夙願，中國的鼎立支持也不可或缺。 中、印兩國擁有大國崛起的充分潛質，從幅員、資源、人口、地緣、文明質素而言，均擁有崛起為亞太地區乃至全球大國的先決條件。尤其是印度已具控制印度洋及其海上咽喉要道的地緣優勢，這將成為崛起的戰略依托。分析中、印戰略關係發展上，其中有持中印「對手論」者，認為中、印將因為戰略上的競爭而無可避免成為對手；亦有持中印「合作論」者，認為中、印在經濟利益的趨使下，將成為合作夥伴；更有剖析兩國面臨的機遇與挑戰，認為兩國的交往及未來的發展，將是有「合作」更有「競爭」，也就是中、印競合論的觀點，個人的觀點較傾向後者。 邁進21世紀，最為全球矚目的是中、印兩國經濟的崛起，尤其引人關注的是兩國在軍事、經濟、外交、國防安全等戰略的競合論述與發展動向。中、印對外戰略都著眼於營造安全穩定、友善共贏的周邊環境；兩者目標均著眼於營造有利於發展的外部環境，以經濟社會發展為核心的國家戰略；就國際層面而言，作為超級強國的美國是影響印度國家發展的關鍵力量；就區域層面而言，中國是印度周邊最主要的大國，也是其最大的安全威脅；究竟是競爭大於合作，或是合作大於競爭，將是影響中、印關係未來發展的關鍵變數，同時將影響亞太地區安全，殊值關注與探討。 === China and India are two powerful countries of rich ancient civilizations separated by the Himalayas. Although there are seemingly more interaction and corporation between the two countries for a wide range of mutual interests, many obstacles are yet to be overcome in the political and economical regards. The United States of America plays a strongly influential role in the already complex relation between China and India. Strategically, America sees India as an important factor in controlling China’s power expansion into the South Asia. Economically, America is competing with China for the vast market in India. India is a fast rising country with strong national pride and powerful military forces, seeking to strengthen its dominating power in the India Ocean. Similarly, China is another nation, which is aiming to become the next world superpower. Moreover, as India is trying to become the UN Permanent member, a good relation with China is advantageous since the support from China would be essential in this case. Considering natural resources, culture, population and strategic location, China and India both demonstrate the great potential in becoming the leading powers in Asia and even the world; therefore, the relation between the two nations is especially delicate. China and India can be competitors or partners. Strategically, the competition between China and India is unavoidable while economically, the two nations are more likely to team up as partners. Into the 21st century, the whole world is watching the rise of China and India. The interactions between the two nations concerning military activity, economy, diplomacy and national security are also the hot topics to media and researchers’ studies. It seems that both nations are inclined to develop a good relation to create a win-win situation in the economical sense while a tight national security cannot be sacrificed. Internationally, America is the most influential country in affecting India’s development; however, locally, China can be a major threat to India, especially in the areas of national security and defense. Overall, China and India see each other more as competitors than partners. The development of Asia Pacific region is strongly related to the interaction and decisions made by China and India; therefore, the studies and discussions on China-India relation have become more and more important.