中共在中亞地區石油安全戰略之研究

• Main Authors: 王自勝, Wang, Chin Sheng
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 中亞國家; 石油安全; 戰略; 石油外交; Middle-Asia countries; Oil security; Strategy; Oil Diplomacy
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0096922003%22.

中共石油安全對外依存度升高，並制約著中共經濟與綜合國力的發展。隨著中國經濟高速成長，石油需求缺口持續擴大，石油供需嚴重失衡，造成中國的不安全感。而中國石油安全困境，具體體現在自給能力不足、進口來源和管道單一、供需不對稱等幾個面向。中亞國家之所以吸引中國，係因中國在中亞具有地緣優勢，且該地區石油是世界第三大石油蘊藏區，對還處在重大轉型期的中亞各國而言，國際力量紛紛介入，石油資源成為其對外發展的條件，也是應對當前全球化衝擊的必要選項。因此，石油安全將成為中國及中亞國家與大國間相互關係發展，最重要的決定因素。 中共在中亞地區的石油安全戰略，主要在彌補石油缺口，確保石油供應安全。本文旨在從「地緣政治學」的視角，分析探討中國及中亞的石油安全形勢、地緣政治、中共的石油安全戰略內涵、佈局與實踐及未來可能面臨的機遇與挑戰等議題。而中國在中亞的石油安全戰略，係以外交為手段，上海合作組織為平臺，輔以敦親睦鄰政策及地緣優勢，建立中國陸路石油供應路徑，期以分散石油供給集中並突破海上運油風險的制約。 中亞因其重要的地緣戰略位置和能源經濟價值以及政經情勢的複雜性，而成為歐亞大陸中心一個敏感地區。因此，中亞諸國採取門戶開放及平衡外交策略，造成世界各主要戰略力量進入，謀求現實的戰略利益。面對中國「走出去」與「多元化」的石油安全戰略，中亞國家與美俄大國競逐態勢，對區域及國際政經情勢的影響，值得關注。 === Beijing’s oil security gradually becomes dependent on foreign sources; this fact also constrains the development of Chinese economy and composite national power. As the Chinese economy grows fast, its need for oil intensifies as well. The oil supplies are unable to satisfy domestic demands, resulting in Beijing’s sense of insecurity. The oil security dilemma is manifested in several dimensions, such as insufficient domestic supplies, single import source and route, and insufficient total oil supplies. The reason why the Middle Asia countries attract China has geographical advantages in Middle Asia, where has the world’s third largest oil deposit. To these Middle-Asia countries which are during their major transformation period, oil resources become the basis of their outward development as well as a necessity to deal with the impact of globalization when international powers intervene. Therefore, oil security will determine the development of mutual relationships between China and Aiddle-Asia countries. Beijing’s oil security strategy on filling the gap in oil supplies and securing the oil supplies security. From "Geopolitions"aspects this thesis analyzes the oil secerity situation of China and Middle-Asia geopolitics, the intertions, deployment, practices future opportunities and challenges of China’s oil security strategy. With diplomacy as manenver Shanghai Cooperation Organization as platform Bejjing’s oil security strategy in Middle-Asia, accompanied by hospitality policies and geographical advantages, untents to establish an oil supply route by land. All of these approaches are to break through the concentration of oil supplies and the constraints and risks of maritime oil route. Due to its critical geostrategic status, energy values, and complication of political and economical situation Middle-Asia becomes a sensitive area in the Eurasian continent. Thus, the Middle-Asia countries adopt open and balance diplomacy, letting major powers enter this area in order to seek for realistic interests, Under the circumstances of Beijing’s "Outward" and "Diverse" oil security strategy, the competition between Middle-Asia counteies, U.S. and Russia, and the impacts of this competition on regional and international political and economical situation, are certainly worthy of attention.