台灣ODM網路通訊公司的成長模式探討—以正文科技股份有限公司為例

• Main Author: 鍾諒霖
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: DCF定價模型; 公司自由現金流量; DCF pricing model; FCFF
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0096380045%22.

台灣ODM網路通訊業的規模從2000年開始急速成長，以正文科技為例，2000年年營收為5億新台幣，在2004年已經達到123億新台幣，年平均成長率達到125%，然而接下來四年的平均年營收成長率僅約15%。近年來電信業者不斷地將其所佈建的網路系統深入一般終端消費者，使得終端零售市場逐漸萎縮，迫使台灣ODM網路通訊業必須轉進電信市場。電信市場是以國家為單位，且在部分國家針對進口的電子商品課徵較高的關稅，藉以保護該國國內的廠商，使得台灣業者處於相對不利的態勢。本研究先針對電信市場進行分析，找出對進口電子商品課徵高額關稅且較具規模的電信市場，並以此探討台灣ODM網路通信公司面對這樣的市場，所應採取的策略，是透過內部成長，直接在巴西當地設立加工廠，還是透過外部併購，併購當地廠商，藉以取得當地生產的能力。本研究選擇的廠商為正文科技，選擇的市場是巴西，藉由法律可行性的分析，探討國內及巴西當地法律對於內部成長與外部併購兩種可行方案的差異；藉由財務可行性的分析，依據公司自由現金流量(FCFF)的觀念，透過DePamphilis (2009)的Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF)定價模型，分別計算正文科技在做出兩種可行方案決策後的市場評估價值。研究結果建議正文科技應以外部併購的方式，透過併購當地企業，進入該市場。 === The Taiwan ODM network companies took a growth rapidly since 2000. The annual revenue of Gemtek Technical Co. in 2000 is only 500 millions NTD, and 12.3 billions NTD in 2004.The average growth rate of annual revenue was up to 125% during these 4 years. However, in the next 4 years it was only around 15%. During the previous years, the telecom service providers went deeper and closer to the end user market and coused the shrinking in retail market.This also forces the Taiwan ODM network companies to consider the telecom market. However, the telecom market is country oriented, and in some countries, they would charge higher custom rate to protect their local industry.First of all, this research will figure out what are the markets with this behavior and what is the solution to enter these markets, by building a factory in the local side or through M&A to get the production capability.This research takes Gemtek Co. and Brasil as an example to discuss in both laws and financial points of view. From the laws point of view, try to figure out the difference the two possibile solutions.From the finance point of view, according to the FCFF concept and the DCF model by DePamphilis (2009), calculate the price of Gemtek company after making the decision with the two solutions. According to the result, it should go in M&A way.