運用實質選擇權觀念分析手機ODM產業研發投資價值

• Main Authors: 龔化中, Kung, Hua Chung
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 實質選擇權; 手機產業; 代工產業; 研發投資財務分析; Real Options Approach; R&D project evaluation; ODM; Mobile Phone Industry
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0095932076%22.

本文的研究主題為利用實質選擇權的觀念，來協助手機ODM廠商計算並評估各種專案的投資效益，或採取適當的方法提高投資效益。 實質選擇權很適合用來分析具有高度不確定性的計畫的投資價值。一般的廠商自行做研發，是新產品研發的實質選擇權買方。但ODM廠商是幫客戶做研發，產品開發專案的決定權通常在客戶手上，ODM廠商變成新產品研發的實質選擇權賣方。所以要計算ODM廠商的研發專案的投資效益，會和傳統的方法不太一樣。 本文設計出一種分析方式，將ODM廠商提供的”設計與製造的整合服務”中間隱含新產品研發的選擇權賣權的成本估計出來。這些成本，會導致整個ODM的研發計畫的投資價值下降，尤其當產品風險高的時候更嚴重。研究結果發現風險愈高的產品越不適宜由ODM廠商來開發。風險較低的成熟產品則非常適合交給ODM廠商來開發。 另外本文利用這種分析方法，比較各種型式的手機專案的預期投資價值與機會成本，以提供管理者在比較與選擇不同專案時參考。也利用這種方法來分析手機ODM廠針對智慧型手機研發上的各種策略對投資價值的影響，以提供管理者在排定策略優先次序時參考。 === The Real Options approach has recently been growing in popularity in the valuation of R&D projects. It can help to evaluate the chances and risks of R&D investment by reflecting the values of of timing and operational flexibility. In most cases, these investments can be treated as “buying Real R&D Options”. However, the R&D projects of ODM (original design manufactor) companies are quite different. They “sell Real R&D Options” to their Brand-Name customers. To sell Options will increase the risks, so it’s definitely not free. This research utilizes the Real Options concept to evaluate the cost of these Real Options sold by Mobile Phone ODM companies to their customers. With this information, ODM companies can have a reasonable finaicial analysis before they sign the contacts based on market risks and opportunities. Futhermore, in this study we design a method to compare different types of projects based on the Real Options analysis. Companies can prioritize projects based on the results of the analysis. We also propose several approachs to increase the value of these R&D investments by reducing the cost of the Real R&D Options they sold.