| Summary: | 如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱
門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限
人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地
價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛
運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段
範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行
實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通
住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影
響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模
型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀
有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、
至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展
潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅
7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦
輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程
度。 === How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and
systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since
the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value
increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness
might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and
systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land
values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation
experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect
fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference
between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity
characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different
zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia
Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring
metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume.
The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value
estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent
variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region
factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land
Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for
easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the
significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the
land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the
distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities,
graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase
the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the
announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of
the district land value model.
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