台灣壽險公司資本適足率分析-以Solvency II QIS5原則計算

• Main Authors: 林正國, Lin, Cheng Kuo
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: Solvency II; 第5次量化衝擊研究; 清償資本要求SCR; 準備金公平價值; QIS5; Solvency Capital Requirement; Fair Value of Technical Provisions
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0095358016%22.

歐盟保險業新監理架構Solvency II 於第5 次量化衝擊研究完成後計畫將在近年正式施行，我國保險業監理制度是否朝採用Solvency II 架構的方向前進仍未為定論，但必頇先行瞭解採行此制度可能對業界造成的影響。 本研究以2010 年8 月時CEIOPS 對Solvency II 所進行的第5 次量化衝擊研究QIS5 設立的標準與原則，對公司的資產與負債做假設後，以公帄價值法衡量壽險公司各部位資產位與負債，包括準備金的公帄價值衡量，並利用QIS5 所提供之計算工具標準法計算四家台灣壽險公司在2009 年底時的清償資本要求SCR。而QIS5 是在金融風暴後不久，當時環境使得利率極低，為了估算在利率環境較正常的情況下，本研究以2007 年底之利率做敏感度分析，重新計算各公司之資產與負債狀況與清償資本要求SCR。 研究結果發現在本研究假設下，負債面的準備金提存不足，保險公司以經濟 資本角度來衡量已經屬於破產狀態。投資型分離帳戶以外的準備金計算與目前準備金計提的方式除了頇以公帄價值衡量保險責任的最佳估計外，另外需要計提風險邊際，此數額約為最佳估計總額的12.4%至30.2%，保險公司自有資本不足有很大的因素是由於此部分準備金的計提。 也發現所計算出的SCR 中所最大的比率為利率風險或匯率風險，在假設以較 高利率環境做敏感度分析後發現壽險公司淨值仍然為負數，且所需要的SCR 與之前所得結果相差不大，顯示壽險公司負債部位對利率敏感度相當高，即使曝險部位變少，對於未來的利率變動仍需要準備相當大的資本以防範虧損。 === After the completion of the Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS5) for the new insurance industrial regulation framework- Solvency II, European Union planned to implement the project in few years. No matter that the regulatory system of insurance industry in Taiwan will follow the trend or will not, it is a must that we should estimate the impacts on the whole industry before making the decisions. This study have an aim to estimate the Solvency Capital Requirements of 4 life insurance companies in Taiwan in the same principles with QIS5, which were took place in August 2010 by CEIOPS. In order to calculate the SCR, we made a lot of hypotheses and then estimated the fair value of the company assets and liabilities, including the fair value of technical provision. By means of the calculating helpers provided by CEIOPS used in QIS5, we found out the SCRs of these companies when they were on 31 December 2009. Then we performed the sensitivity analysis by the different interest rate which is based on the data on 31 December 2007, and recalculated the SCRs of the companies. This study had conclusions that the technical provisions were not sufficient to fulfill the obligations in aspect of the economic value. The surplus of companies were exhausted, because the technical provisions increased by fair valuation. Also, the heavy loadings of risk margins as 12.4% to 30.2% of the best estimates were the important reason of the negative own fund. We found that the capital requirements of interest risk and currency risk took great percentages of total SCRs. And the SCRs will not reduce in great amount caused by technical provisions reduced in the situation that interest rate come back to the level in 2007. It showed that the SCRs had great sensitivity to the interest risk and insurance companies should prepare sufficient own fund to prevent financial crisis caused by interest rate shock.