博弈產業與澳門經濟發展—「自由行」實施前後之比較

• Main Author: 王智樺
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 澳門; 人均GDP; 博弈產業; 線性迴歸; Macau; gambling industry; GDP per capita; linear regression
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0095260013%22.

1999年澳門回歸中國大陸後，博弈產業成為澳門經濟發展的龍頭。近十年來，伴隨著澳門人均GDP上升、博弈產業的豐厚利潤、政府稅收逐年提升等經濟急速發展的現象，使得澳門模式成為東亞國家競相模仿的對象，而博弈產業是否造成地方經濟產業單一化，或是帶動其他產業齊頭式發展，也是各界爭論的議題。特別在澳門與中國簽訂《內地與澳門關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排》(CEPA)後，由於開放內地遊客「自由行」政策，使得博弈產業錦上添花。為了清楚瞭解博弈產業對澳門經濟發展到底造成何種影響，本文主要研究目的有以下兩點：一為探討博弈產業是否對澳門人均GDP是否造成影響，二為比較在「自由行」政策實施前後，博弈產業對澳門經濟的影響。 根據實證結果顯示，博彩消費、人口、公共支出、CEPA的簽訂，皆與澳門人均GDP呈現正向關係，證明了博弈產業的確影響澳門經濟發展甚大。但研究結果也顯示，博弈產業在「自由行」實施後，對澳門經濟影響力反而下降，因此本研究推論，在「自由行」實施前，澳門經濟大部分靠博彩業支撐，其他產業積弱不振；「自由行」實施後，其他產業得到發展機會，增長速度超越博彩業發展的速度，才會造成本研究實證結果。 總的來說，博彩業在澳門與中國簽訂CEPA後，反而減弱其影響力，表示在「自由行」實施後，其他產業並沒有隨著博彩業的壯大而消失，反而跟著博彩業一同成長，澳門產業結構並無朝向單一化，反而更加多元。帶動其他行業發展，有利建設先進、多元化的綜合城市。 === The gambling industry has become the leading industry in Macau since Macau return to China in 1999. This decade, accompanying with the rise of Macau’s GDP per capita, the huge profits the gambling industry, such as the phenomenon of rapid economic growth, making “Macau Pattern” become a model which East Asian countries compete to imitate. It is a controversial issue that if the gambling industry made the local industry more singlize or led other industry develop. Especially after Macao and China signed the "Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement" (CEPA), the opening up of the Mainland visitors as a result of "Free Trip" policy, helping the gambling industry develop rapidly. In order to clearly understand the game industry how to impact Macao's economic development, the purposes are to investigate the relationship between gambling industry and economic development of Macau. The empirical result shows: gambling consumption, population, public expenditure and CEPA signing have significant positive effects on economic development in Macau, Proving that the impact of the game industry is indeed a great economic development of Macau. The result also shows that after the signing of CEPA, gambling industry has fewer impact on economic development in Macau. Therefore, we infer that all industries except gambling industry were weak before “Free Trip”, and other industry got chance to develop after “Free Trip”. To sum up, the gambling industry is the main industry that affects the economic development in Macau. After “Free Trip”, other industries didn’t disappear or decline, all of them keep developing with gambling industry.