| Summary: | 石化能源逐漸耗竭引人關注，再加上「京都議定書」對溫室氣體排放之全球性管制，促使世界各國重視各種新能源與替代性能源，並積極投入應用與研究開發。生質燃料已成為全球許多國家的戰略性資源，其發展除可開發自產綠色能源，提高能源自主比例，並能結合能源、農業、環保、產業等共同發展。面對全球生質燃料產業急速成長，台灣自不能自外於節能減碳的永續發展趨勢。
為驗證政府推動生質燃料政策的環境條件及業界投入狀況，本研究以次級資料分析方法進行國內、外之發展現況及趨勢分析；透過學者、專家、政府業務執行主管及業者之深度訪談，藉由訪談之資料歸納國內發展情形，對照現有生質燃料政策推動目標之發展模式，並以五力分析架構及SWOT評估方法評估生質燃料產業發展之競爭力。
本研究的主要發現包括：1.影響我國生質燃料的發展，最主要的關鍵要素是料源成本、價格補貼及市場保證；2.在推廣生質燃料的策略作法上，絕大多數主張應依政府政策規劃目標循序漸進推動；3.業者在發展生質燃料過程中，面臨最大的困難在於政策的不確定及原料的掌握不足；4.產業發展初期仍應以國內產製優先，不足部分再開放進口；5.生質柴油料源中，目前以廢食用油最具價格競爭力，麻瘋果油次之，藻類則是長期看好的料源。生質酒精部分，依國內廠商最可行技術而言，以甘蔗酒精較具價格競爭力，狼尾草居次，纖維素作物則是長期看好者。6.現階段的政策目標，在生質柴油部分的推廣比例仍以B2為佳，生質酒精則以E3為國產料原的最大量。長期來看，生質燃料產業的擴展，一定要以非糧食作物為優先，關鍵環節在於纖維酒精技術及藻類開發技術有突破，推廣比例及市場規模才有再擴張的空間。
就研究分析所得，提供下述政策建議：1、政府需訂定明確的政策目標；2.成立再生能源國家型計畫，加速推動生質燃料發展；3.政府率先投資第二代生質燃料產業；4.需建構生質燃料永續發展的制度性設計；5.確立以本國產製為優先之政策宣示；6.強化節能減碳教育宣導，讓消費者建立信心並接受。在業界策略上建議：1.必須提升料源掌握度與開發多元料源，並降低生產成本；2.業者須加強與通路商籌組供油策略聯盟；3.生質酒精業者可採合資或合作生產方式切入市場，取得先占地位；4.積極參與第二代生質燃料的研發與技術銜接。
=== Petrochemical energy shortage is an issue that has been gradually gaining attention. Global regulation of greenhouse gases emission set by the Kyoto Protocol has also called attention to new and alternative energy sources, as well as the active involvement of individual countries in new energy application and research development. Biofuel has now become a strategic resource in many countries. Additional development of alternative energy can not only help increase the amount of domestic green energy and its ratio to traditional energy, synergy is also created causing the equal development of energy, agriculture, environmental production, and industrial growth. In face of the rapid growth of the biofuel industry worldwide, Taiwan must not exclude itself from the trend of sustainable development in energy conservation and CO2 reduction.
To access the conditions of government policy in biofuel promotion and industry involvement, this study used secondary data analysis methods to analyze the current trend and status of national and international development. Through information gathered from in-depth interviews with academics, experts, government executives, and industry members, current domestic developments are compared to existing models of biofuel policy, promotion, and objectives. The competitiveness of biofuel industry development is further evaluated using SWOT assessment and Five Power Analysis.
The main findings of this study include the following: 1) The key elements affecting national biofuel development are raw material costs, price subsidies, and market guarantees. 2) In biofuel promotion strategies, a vast majority should be made gradually and according to government policy planning objectives. 3) In biofuel development, the biggest challenges the industry faces are policy uncertainties and the lack of raw materials. 4) In initial industry development, domestic production should be a priority, allowing imports only when in demand. 5) In raw materials for bio-diesel, recycled oils are currently the most competitive in value, followed by Jatropha oil, while algae is seen as having long-term potential. According to the most viable technology offered by domestic manufacturers, sugarcane ethanol is the most competitive in value for bio-ethanol, followed by Chinese Pennisetum, while agricultural waste is seen as having long-term potential. 6) In the current stage of policy objectives, B2 is still more adequate in the promotion of bio-diesel, and E3 is the main domestic raw material for bio-ethanol. In the expansion of biofuel industry in the long run, priority must be given to non staple crops, while the key lies in cellulosic ethanol and algae oil development technology. Only then can there be room for further expansion in promotional proportion and market scale.
The following policy recommendations are provided based on analysis of the study: 1) Clear policy goals must be set by the government. 2) Establish nation-wide plans for renewable energy, and accelerate the promotion of biofuel development. 3) Government must take initiatives in second-generation feedstock investments. 4) A systematic design must be built for the sustainable development of biofuel. 5) Policy declarations must be made to ensure the priority of domestic production. 6) Strengthen education in energy conservation and CO2 reduction, and build consumer confidence and acceptance.
Recommendations for industry strategies: 1) It is essential to increase control of raw materials, develop multi-source materials, and lower production costs. 2) The industry must strengthen its strategic alliances with distributor in oil supply. 3) The biofuel industry may partake in joint ventures or cooperative efforts to get a head start when entering the market. 4) Actively participate in the research and development and technology adaptation of second-generation feedstock.
|
|---|
