| Summary: | 為達學術研究與實務結合、及研究更深入本土化，本論文結合證券專業經理人訪談、個案分析與訪談與實證研究三種方式，探討強制性財務預測揭露對法人投資機構交易量之影響。
一、證券專業經理人訪談
訪談對象為國內法人投資機構之專業經理人，訪談內容主要在瞭解，法人的投資行為、憑藉的資訊來源、及以使用者的角度來看當前財務預測制度。經由訪談，本研究得以初步地建立問題、確定問題的可研究性。訪談結果：受訪者認為國內法人投資者對強制性財務預測之交易量反應會較外資強，至於散戶是否會參考此項資訊則持懷疑態度。
二、個案分析與訪談
整理、彙總國內自民國80年「公開發行公司財務預測資訊公開體系實施要點」實行以來，因違反規定而招證券暨期貨管理委員會處罰的案例進行訪談。藉由訪談，本研究得以確定研究問題、建立研究假說、及使用之研究方法，而訪談所觀察到的現象更可為實證研究結果，提供解釋的方向。訪談結果：大部分的受訪者認為法人較會參考財務預測資訊。
三、實證研究
以國內上市公司為研究對象，蒐集民國八十三年一月（自營商之分析自民國八十五年一月）至民國八十六年十二月的資料，實證結果：
（一）原始強制性財務預測資訊揭露時，市場有顯著之異常交易量，且其異常交易量與公司規模大小呈正相關，與未預期盈餘則沒有顯著關係。
（二）原始強制性財務預測資訊揭露時，外資有顯著之異常交易量，且其異常交易量與未預期盈餘、公司規模大小呈正相關。
（三）原始強制性財務預測資訊揭露時，自營商沒有顯著之異常交易量，其異常交易量與未預期盈餘、公司規模大小無顯著關係。
（四）正向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，市場有顯著之異常交易量，且其異常交易量與正向更新幅度、公司規模大小呈正相關。
（五）正向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，外資有顯著之異常交易量，且其異常交易量與正向更新幅度呈正相關，與公司規模大小則沒有顯著關係。
（六）正向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，自營商沒有顯著之異常交易量，其異常交易與正向更新幅度、公司規模大小無顯著關係。
（七）負向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，市場有顯著之異常交易量，且其異常交易量與負向更新幅度呈正相關，與公司規模大小則無顯著關係。
（八）負向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，外資沒有顯著之異常交易量，其異常交易量與負向更新幅度、公司規模大小無顯著關係。
（九）負向之財務預測更新資訊揭露時，自營商有顯著之異常交易量，其異常交易量與負向更新幅度、公司規模大小無顯著關係。
四、三種研究方法之研究結果說明：
經由證券專業經理人訪談、個案分析與訪談以及實證測試，本研究得出下列綜合性結論：
（一）國內法人投資機構，外資與自營商對強制性財務預測之反應確實有很大不同。
外資在原始、正向更新資訊有顯著之異常交易量；而自營只對負向更新資訊有異常反應。外資有異常交易量的部分跟未預期盈餘／更新幅度有關，但自營商則否。可能外資的投資決策較重國際情勢，看法較客觀；相較之下自營商有短期績效壓力，而其資訊取得也較便利而多元，因而促成兩大法人在資訊的反應上有很多不同。
（二）除正向更新外，原始預測、負向更新資訊市場整體的反應時點，都較有顯著異常交易量的法人慢。
法人投資者在資訊取得成本與速度都較散戶低而快。一般來說，法人會主動瞭解營業狀況，不會等到訊息發佈時才注意該資訊；而散戶大部分仰賴公司公告的數字與小道消息，在資訊的接收上較被動，促使一般投資者與法人投資者在反應的時間上有所差別。
（三）市場對更新資訊確實較法人投資者易受強制性財務預測調高、調低幅度的影響。
在更新資訊上，外資只對正向更新有顯著異常交易量，且與更新幅度有關；自營商則只對負向更新有顯著異常交易量，但與更新幅度沒有顯著關係；然市場整體對正、負向更新均有異常交易量反應，且與更新幅度也都有關聯性存在。依據市場供需法則，交易量會影響股價，因此一公司對財務預測的調高、調低確實可能帶動股價的變動；而受影響最大的可能便是一般投資者。
（四）自營商為國內本土的法人投資者，且有自己的財務分析師，確實較市場、外資在強制性財務預測資訊發佈時，沒有異常交易量反應。
國內法人投資者極重視自己內部分析師所做之研究。另外，經常拜訪公司及同業也是他們資訊取得相當重要的一環。雖然自營商極重視財務預測資訊，但因取得管道與時間上較多元與彈性，因而造成其對資訊的反應有別於外資與整體市場。
=== The thesis combined case study and field visits to investigate the effect of mandated financial forecasts announcements on the trading volume of institutional investors. It links up theory and practice and focuses on an issue of significant local interest.
I. Field Visits
Visits were made to institutional investment managers. The purposes of these visits included understanding the behavior of institutional investors, the source of their information, and their views on the mandatory disclosure system. The visits also helped to ensure that the subjects for the study had sufficient experience to shed light on the topic. Most of the managers interviewed deemed the abnormal trading volume of domestic institutional investors during the mandated financial forecasts disclosure period to be much greater than that of foreign investors. They also expressed doubt that the general investors refer to the financial forecasts information.
II. Case Study and Visits
Visits were made to managers of companies that had violated the mandatory disclosure system. Theses visits helped to define and focus the thesis, developing the hypotheses, and selecting the research method. THe visits also provided insights useful for interpreting the empirical results. Most of the managers interviewed considered institutional investors more likely to refer to the mandated financial forecasts information than general investors.
III. Empirical Results
The data included earnings and trading volume of all domestic listed firms between January 1, 1994 (securities dealers from January 1, 1996) and December 31, 1997. The results of the empirical investigation are:
1. There is significant abnormal trading volume for the stock market as a whole during the first mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. The larger the firm, the greater the abnormal trading volume. There is no significant relation between the abnormal volume and the absolute value of unexpected earnings.
2. There is significant abnormal trading volume by foregin investors during the first mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. The larger the firm and the absolute value of unexpected earnings, the greater the abnormal trading volume.
3. There is no significant abnormal trading volume by securitites dealers during the first mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. There also is no significant relation between abnormal volume and the absolute value of unexpected earnings with firm size.
4. There is significant abnormal trading volume for the stock market as a whole during the positive updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. The larger the firm size and the higher the absolute value of the updated, the greater the abnormal trading volume.
5. There is significant abnormal trading volume by foreign investors during the postitive updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. The greater the absolute value of the update, the greater the abnormal trading volume. There is no significant relation between the abnormal volume and firm size.
6. There is no significant abnormal trading volume by securities dealers during the positive updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. There also is no significant relation between abnormal volume and the absolute value of the update with firm size.
7. There is significant abnormal trading volume for the stock market as a whole during the negative updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. The greater the absolute value of the update, the greater the abnormal trading volume. There is no significant relation between the abnormal volume and firm size.
8. There is no significant abnormal trading volume by foreign investors during the negative updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. There also is no significant relation between abnormal volume and the absolute value of the update with firm size.
9. There is significant abnormal trading volume by securities dealers during the negative updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period. There is no significant relation between abnormal volume and the absolute value of the update with firm size.
IV. Combined Results form Research Methods
The results of combining visits with the securities investment managers, case study and interviews, and empirical investigation are:
1. Foreign investors and securities dealers react differently to mandated financial forecasts announcements. Foreign investors have significant abnormal trading volume to the first and positive updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure information. Securities dealers have significant abnormal trading volume to the negative updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure information.
2. General stock market investors react more slowly than institutional investors, who have significant abnormal trading volume during the first and positive updated mandated financial forecasts disclosure period.
3. General stock market investors react to a great extent than institutional investors to the absolute value of updates.
4. Securities dealers who are domestic local institutional investors and have their own analysts have smaller reactions than foreign investors and general stock market investors during the mandated financial forecasts disclosure period.
|
|---|
