Summary: | 本研究係以外資法人為研究對象,希冀瞭解其是否會依所在國的投資經驗,充分有效地使用諸如會計資訊等基本資訊,並適度地將蒐集、分析與解釋季報、半年報及年報之結果,充分反應於其投資行為上。
本研究期間起自民國83年第1季,截至民國85年第3季止,以季盈餘宣告日前後各 15日之外資法人每日持股變動情形為研究對象,採用卡方獨立性檢定及T檢定等統計方法,經實證分析,本研究所獲得的結論可彙述如下:
1.只有在民國83年第2季、84年第2季、84年第3季及85年第3季中,外資法人之買(賣)超與盈餘資訊顯著相關。
2.以下係總結外資法人是否會比一般投資人先行反應盈餘宣告之資訊,提早進場買賣的相關實證結果。
當盈餘為好消息時,大致上皆符合預期推論,故可據此推測外資法人會事先反應盈餘資訊為好消息之宣告,在宣告日前進場買超;當盈餘為壞消息時,雖然相較於好消息之宣告,P值較不顯著,但仍可說明外資法人會事先反應盈餘資訊為壞消息之宣告。
3.以下係總結盈餘變動百分比之大小(好壞消息之程度),對於外資法人之投資行為是否會有不同程度之影響的相關實證結果。
當盈餘宣告為好消息時,不論其好消息之程度,外資法人的確皆會適切反應盈餘宣告之資訊,提前加碼買進,且買超之幅度及時點並不會受到盈餘成長幅度的影響;當盈餘資訊為壞消息時,不論壞消息之程度,外資法人皆不會事先反應盈餘資訊之宣告,提前賣出持股;且盈餘衰退幅度不同的兩組樣本,其賣超的幅度並無太大之差異。
=== This study aims to investigate whether professional foreign investors would apply accounting information to make their investment decisions. Since the accounting information is generally useful in foreign countries, for example. Lev (1989) concluded that the accounting information is useful in the US. market, professional foreign investors should underlie accounting information to make investment decisions in the Taiwan market as they have done in their home country. This study imitates event study approach to examine whether the professional foreign investor would significantly react to unexpected news within designated window periods. The result of this study can provide the knowledge in relation to the role of professional foreign investors in the Taiwan market.
This study selects samples, covering from the first quarter of 1994 to third quarter of 1996, to verify the hypothesis that the professional foreign investors would employ accounting information to make their investment decisions. The empirical findings can be summarized as follows.
1. The professional foreign investors significantly react to the announcement of accounting information within designated window, particularly on the announcement dates of second quarter of 1994, second quarter of 1995, third quarter of 1995 and third quarter of 1996.
2. The foreign professional investors significantly adjust their investment portfolio prior to the earnings announcement date no matter whether it is a good news or bad news. In addition, the professional foreign investors will significantly buy stocks prior to the announcement of good news, and vice versa. However, the announcement of bad news cannot produce a generalized result.
This study concludes that, even though the empirical results are not a generalized one, the professional foreign investors do employ accounting information to make their investment decisions. Thus, to bring foreign capitals to invest in our market would increase the usefulness of accounting information.
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