| Summary: | 本研究探討以實質選擇權法評估高科技公司之股價，而如何評估企業合理的股價一直都是學者、投資人與企業亟欲探討的問題。由於高科技產業類似買權的特性，即潛在獲利高而下方風險有限(放棄選擇權)，使得採用何種股票評價模型來評估高科技產業股價更是一重要課題。一般常用來衡量企業實質價值的方法有三類：現金流量折現法、相對評價法（如本益比法）以及近年來開始發展的實質選擇權模型。但傳統的現金流量折現法會忽略了管理者的決策彈性而低估價值，本益比法會受到盈餘品質的影響；因此本研究以Schwartz和Moon(2000)連續時間之下的實質選擇權法來評估每股價值，希望在加入營運策略彈性之考慮後，求算出的模型價格能更真實地反映企業價值，並進而探討影響企業價值之關鍵因素。
本文以台灣IC設計產業龍頭，有「亞洲英特爾」之稱的威盛電子公司為研究對象。以威盛及其類似公司矽統科技之相關歷史資料估計參數，並與民國90年第一季實際股價驗證，發現實際股價逐漸逼近模型價格346.54元。以敏感度分析結果得到影響威盛股價的關鍵參數有四個：成本佔收入之比率、賺取超額報酬之期間、企業終值和收入成長率隨機過程之回復平均速度。
=== The valuation of high-growth companies has been a controversial subject both in the academic literature and financial press. Since high-tech companies have option-like characteristics and asymmetric payoffs, this paper attempts to apply real-options pricing model created by Schwartz and Moon (2000) to get the rational price of high-tech companies and look for the key value-drivers.
This paper focuses on valuing VIA Technologies, the world’s largest PC core logic chipset supplier with growing exposure to communications chips and microprocessors. After estimating the model parameters and solving the model by simulation, the model stock price for VIA Technologies is $346.54；moreover, market prices are getting close to the model price in the first quarter of 2001. Finally, I perform sensitivity analysis on the more critical parameters of the model, and find out four important parameters that have big effects on stock prices, including variable costs, horizon of the estimation, terminal value and speed of adjustment for the rate of growth process.
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