貨幣與內生成長：爬行釘住匯率與浮動匯率的分析

• Main Authors: 蕭明福, Shaw, Ming-Fu
• Language: 英文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22A2002000471%22.

對經濟而言，內生成長理論的共同性質是成長的動力來自於模型本身，像生產性的政府支出、人力資本的累積、和研究與發展等；但它卻無法與外匯累積有關聯。然而，對開放經濟而言，經濟成長不僅受到前述因素的影響，而且受外匯供需差距的影響。很明顯地，開放經濟與封閉經濟的成長本質是有所不同的。進一步地，開放經濟的外匯存量（因此貨幣供給）與經濟體系所採行的匯率制度有密切的關係，因此經濟成長率可能受到貨幣當局所採行的匯率制度的影響。 然而，在開放經濟的內生成長文獻中，一直到現在，仍很少有文獻分析匯率與貨幣成長政策對經濟成長的影響。因此，本論文的目的是設立一個合理的架構，並研究匯率基礎的穩定計劃（exchange-rate-based stabilization program）和預料到的貨幣成長政策（anticipated monetary growth policies）對經濟成長率與其他相關總體經濟變數的效果。 準此，在第二章中，我們建立一個小型開放的開發中國家，模型具有三項特點：生產技術以實質貨幣餘額和實物資本為要素投入、國際資本市場具不完全性、以及投資支出包含調整成本。我們發現在貨幣可以改善生產效率國際資本市場是不完全競爭時，名目匯率錠錨（nominal exchange rate anchor）是個可以抑制通貨膨脹並刺激經濟成長的有效工具。我們也發現採用匯率基礎的穩定計劃，在長期上，可提昇實質產出－資本比、資本的市場價值、實質貨幣餘額－資本比、及實質外債－資本比。所以，我們的結果提供了一個理論基礎來解釋Easterly(1996) 和Bruno and Easterly(1998)在實證上的發現。 在第三章中，我們建立一個小型開放經濟體系，分析貨瞥當局宣告（preannounced）變動國內信用成長率，對本國經濟成長率及相關總體變動的動態效果。本章的內生成長模型強調投資包含調整成本和貨幣在生產函數的腳色。我們發現提高預料到的信用成長率會降低資本成長率、實質貨幣餘額成長率、及實質產出成長率的動態行為（transitional behavior）和長期均衡成長率（steady-growth rate）。而且，我們也發現通貨貶值率在動態調整過程中，呈現持續性增加，且貶值率變動大於信用成長率變動。因此，預料到的國內信用成長率的變動，在中間過程（the intermediate）和長期狀態，均呈現貨幣非中立性（monetary nonsuperneutrality）。 === For a closed economy the common feature of endogenous growth theories is that the engine of growth comes from the model itself, such as productive government expenditure, accumulation of human capital, research and development, and among others, rather than accumulation of foreign exchanges. However, for a small open economy cconomic growth will be influenced by forenamed factors and the gap between demand for and supply of foreign exchanges. As is obvious, the essence on growth between open and closed economies would be different. Furthermore, for an open economy the stock of foreign exchanges(hence money supply )is crucially related to the choice of a regime of exchange rates, and thereby the rate of economic growth nay depend on the regime the monetary authorities choose. However, until now very few efforts have been made to analyze the respenses of the economic growth rate to exchange rate and monetary growth policies in the open-economy endogenous growth literature. Consequently, the purpose of this dissertation is to set out a plausible framework and investigates the effects of exchmge-rare-based stabilization program and anticipated monetary growth policies on the eccaomic growth rate and other relevnt macroeconomic variables. To this end, in Chapter 2, we set up a framework for developing countries embedding a production technology with real money balances and capital factors, the international financial externality, and investment expenditures involving adjustment costs. We have found that nominal exchange rate anchor is and effective tool to depress inflation an promote economic growth when money can improve the efficiency of production and world capital market is imperfectly competitive. We have also found that the implementation of exchange rate-based stabilization programs will raise the real output-capital ratio, the market value of capital, the real balances-capital ratio, and the real foreign debt-capital ratio in the long run. Thus, our results have provided a theoretical explanation to the empirical evidence of Easterly(1996)and Bruno and Easterly(1998). In Chapter 3, we analyze the effects of a preannounced change in the growth rate of credit in a small open economy. The model, based on an endogenous growth model, emphasizes adjustment costs for investment and the role of money in the production function. We show that a rise in the rate of anticipated credit growth lowers both the transitional behavior and the steady-growth rate of capital, real blances, and real output. Moreover, we have found that the devaluation rate displays an increasing process during the evolutionary adjustment and the change in the devaluation rate is greater than the change in the credit growth rate. The anticipated domestic credit growth hence exhibits monetary nonsuperneutrality in both the rate and the level of output in the intermediate and the long run.