Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

• Main Authors: Fry, John, Binner, J.M.
• Language: en
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: Behavioural OR; OR in disaster relief; Decision analysis; Humanitarian logistics; Modelling
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17569

Yes === Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions. === Supported by EPSRC (IDEAS Factory - Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations, EP/I005765/1)