A Logistic Regression Analysis of Utah Colleges Exit Poll Response Rates Using SAS Software

• Main Author: Stevenson, Clint W.
• Format: Others
• Published: BYU ScholarsArchive 2006
• Subjects: Exit Poll; sampling; weighting; questionnaires; interviewers; voters; polling places; precincts; backward selection; SAS; proc; logistic; surveylogistic; model selection; Utah Colleges Exit Poll; UCEP; SUDAAN; SQL; data management; weight adjustments; predicted probabilities; logistic regression; holdout; research; validation; sample design; data architecture; adjustment; exogenous; statistics; political; science; nonresponse; response; rate; retail sales; age; race; gender; time of day; Statistics and Probability
• Online Access: https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/1116; https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2115&context=etd

In this study I examine voter response at an interview level using a dataset of 7562 voter contacts (including responses and nonresponses) in the 2004 Utah Colleges Exit Poll. In 2004, 4908 of the 7562 voters approached responded to the exit poll for an overall response rate of 65 percent. Logistic regression is used to estimate factors that contribute to a success or failure of each interview attempt. This logistic regression model uses interviewer characteristics, voter characteristics (both respondents and nonrespondents), and exogenous factors as independent variables. Voter characteristics such as race, gender, and age are strongly associated with response. An interviewer's prior retail sales experience is associated with whether a voter will decide to respond to a questionnaire or not. The only exogenous factor that is associated with voter response is whether the interview occurred in the morning or afternoon.