Prediction using patient comparison vs. modeling: A case study for mortality prediction

• Main Authors: Hoogendoorn, Mark (Author), el Hassouni, Ali (Author), Mok, Kwongyen (Author), Ghassemi, Marzyeh (Contributor), Szolovits, Peter (Contributor)
• Other Authors: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (Contributor), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (Contributor)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2017-12-29T19:45:54Z.
• Subjects: Article
• Online Access: Get fulltext

 Information in Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to generate accurate predictions for the occurrence of a variety of health states, which can contribute to more pro-active interventions. The very nature of EMRs does make the application of off-the-shelf machine learning techniques difficult. In this paper, we study two approaches to making predictions that have hardly been compared in the past: (1) extracting high-level (temporal) features from EMRs and building a predictive model, and (2) defining a patient similarity metric and predicting based on the outcome observed for similar patients. We analyze and compare both approaches on the MIMIC-II ICU dataset to predict patient mortality and find that the patient similarity approach does not scale well and results in a less accurate model (AUC of 0.68) compared to the modeling approach (0.84). We also show that mortality can be predicted within a median of 72 hours.