Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa
Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socio...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-02-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/151/2016/esd-7-151-2016.pdf |
| Summary: | Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover
changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to
socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping
agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of
climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of
agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection
(LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply
and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the
demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the
supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly
considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to
West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based
crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate
model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for
policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural
intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with
future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in
cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century.
The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the
western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern
part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation
suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed
decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many
parts of the region. |
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| ISSN: | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |