Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity i...

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Main Authors:	Michael Notaro, Michael Schummer, Yafang Zhong, Stephen Vavrus, Lena Van Den Elsen, John Coluccy, Christopher Hoving
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2016-01-01
Series:	PLoS ONE
Online Access:	http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5154525?pdf=render

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spelling	doaj-fcecb1b945284c65a02c757f117ac2dd2020-11-25T02:16:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032016-01-011112e016750610.1371/journal.pone.0167506Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.Michael NotaroMichael SchummerYafang ZhongStephen VavrusLena Van Den ElsenJohn ColuccyChristopher HovingProjected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5154525?pdf=render
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Michael Notaro Michael Schummer Yafang Zhong Stephen Vavrus Lena Van Den Elsen John Coluccy Christopher Hoving
spellingShingle	Michael Notaro Michael Schummer Yafang Zhong Stephen Vavrus Lena Van Den Elsen John Coluccy Christopher Hoving Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century. PLoS ONE
author_facet	Michael Notaro Michael Schummer Yafang Zhong Stephen Vavrus Lena Van Den Elsen John Coluccy Christopher Hoving
author_sort	Michael Notaro
title	Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.
title_short	Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.
title_full	Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.
title_fullStr	Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.
title_full_unstemmed	Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.
title_sort	projected influences of changes in weather severity on autumn-winter distributions of dabbling ducks in the mississippi and atlantic flyways during the twenty-first century.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series	PLoS ONE
issn	1932-6203
publishDate	2016-01-01
description	Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.
url	http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5154525?pdf=render
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Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

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