A Hybrid Deep Convolutional Neural Network Approach for Predicting the Traffic Congestion Index

• Main Authors: Duy Tran Quang, Sang Hoon Bae
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences 2021-05-01
• Series: Promet (Zagreb)
• Subjects: traffic congestion prediction; deep learning; convolutional neural network; probe vehicles; gradient descent optimization
• Online Access: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3657

Traffic congestion is one of the most important issues in large cities, and the overall travel speed is an important factor that reflects the traffic status on road networks. This study proposes a hybrid deep convolutional neural network (CNN) method that uses gradient descent optimization algorithms and pooling operations for predicting the short-term traffic congestion index in urban networks based on probe vehicles. First, the input data are collected by the probe vehicles to calculate the traffic congestion index (output label). Then, a CNN that uses gradient descent optimization algorithms and pooling operations is applied to enhance its performance. Finally, the proposed model is chosen on the basis of the R-squared (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) values. In the best-case scenario, the proposed model achieved an R2 value of 98.7%. In addition, the experiments showed that the proposed model significantly outperforms other algorithms, namely the ordinary least squares (OLS), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), recurrent neural network (RNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM), in predicting traffic congestion index. Furthermore, using the proposed method, the time-series changes in the traffic congestion status can be reliably visualized for the entire urban network.