Spatially explicit avalanche risk assessment linking Bayesian networks to a GIS
Avalanche disasters are associated with significant monetary losses. It is thus crucial that avalanche risk assessments are based on a consistent and proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the avalanche run-out zones and the estimations of the damage potential. We link a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2006-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/6/911/2006/nhess-6-911-2006.pdf |
| Summary: | Avalanche disasters are associated with significant monetary losses. It is thus crucial that avalanche risk assessments are based on a consistent and proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the avalanche run-out zones and the estimations of the damage potential. We link a Bayesian network (BN) to a Geographic Information System (GIS) for avalanche risk assessment in order to facilitate the explicit modelling of all relevant parameters, their causal relations and the involved uncertainties in a spatially explicit manner. The suggested procedure is illustrated for a case study area (Davos, Switzerland) located in the Swiss Alps. We discuss the potential of such a model by comparing the risks estimated using the probabilistic framework to those obtained by a traditional risk assessment procedure. The presented model may serve as a basis for developing a consistent and unified risk assessment approach. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |